Follow the Oil

Insurance: War-risk premium ~0.2-0.4% of hull value (from 0.125% pre-crisis), ~+$250k per large-tanker transit

The US Iran-only naval blockade held into day 154 as a days-long US-Iran strike pause abruptly frayed: late on July 28 (about 5:45pm ET) Iran's IRGC fired a surprise ballistic-missile salvo at a US base in Jordan — CENTCOM said all were intercepted — and US and Saudi forces struck Iran-aligned forces in Iraq in response. Crude, which had settled lower for a third straight session July 28 (Brent $84.09/-4.8%, WTI $79.26/-4.0%, fully unwinding the spike above $100), rebounded in July 29 Asian trade — WTI up ~4.4% toward ~$82.7 and Brent ~4% toward ~$88 — reinjecting a war premium ahead of the July 29 FOMC. The attack came a day after Trump touted 'good talks' to end the war and Iran held Hormuz calls with Oman and Saudi Arabia while denying any direct US negotiations. The Houthi Bab el-Mandeb blockade stayed unresolved. Verified Hormuz transits held near ~9/day versus 140 pre-war; AAA's national pump average held near ~$4.099.

1. 2026-07-03Partially blocked

   Crude held near pre-war multi-month lows into the July 4 holiday (Brent ~$71.8, WTI ~$68.7), steadying after three straight losing sessions as Strait of Hormuz throughput topped ~10M bpd — the UAE restoring exports above 3.9M bpd and Saudi Arabia ramping Asian shipments toward ~90% of pre-war levels. US-Iran indirect Doha talks had concluded July 1-2 with 'positive progress,' but follow-up diplomacy was pushed back by the July 4-9 state funeral of assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Traders positioned ahead of the OPEC+ July 5 meeting, where Reuters sources now expect another ~188,000 bpd August hike (the same monthly pace as June and July), not the larger increase some had floated. US markets closed July 3 for Independence Day.Reuters (Kitco) / CNBC / CNN

2. 2026-07-04Partially blocked

   US markets closed for Independence Day. Crude held near pre-war multi-month lows (Brent ~$71.8, WTI ~$68.7) into the OPEC+ Sunday July 5 meeting, where Reuters sources expect a fourth straight ~188,000 bpd August hike rather than a larger increase. Strait of Hormuz throughput held above ~10M bpd (roughly 75-90% of pre-war) with UAE exports back above 3.9M bpd, while US-Iran follow-up diplomacy stayed paused for Supreme Leader Khamenei's July 4-9 state funeral. Overseas, Europe's Stoxx 600 and Germany's DAX hit record highs July 3 as AI-trade jitters eased, while Asia's chip complex sold off (Kospi -7.9%). AAA pump average held near $3.82 into a record ~72.2M-traveler holiday weekend.Reuters (AGBI/Kitco) / Investing.com

3. 2026-07-04Partially blocked

   Reopening stayed contested into the July 4 holiday: Bloomberg vessel-tracking showed at least eight ships (tankers, bulk and vehicle carriers) making U-turns in the Strait of Hormuz between Friday and Saturday, some completing transit only by switching to an Iran-designated route as Tehran asserted control under the June 17 US-Iran memorandum (60 days of free transit, sanctions relief expiring Aug 21). Traffic remained well below normal even as crude held pre-war multi-month lows (Brent ~$72, WTI ~$69) ahead of the OPEC+ July 5 meeting.Bloomberg / Al Jazeera

4. 2026-07-05Partially blocked

   OPEC+ on Sunday July 5 approved a fifth straight ~188,000 bpd output hike for August (matching June and July), as the eight-nation core pressed on unwinding 2023 voluntary cuts — lifting cumulative additions since April to roughly 0.94-0.99M bpd — despite a supply glut and crude near pre-war lows (Brent ~$72, WTI ~$69). The group again passed on a larger ~411,000 bpd step; separately Saudi Aramco CUT its August Arab Light OSP to Asia to about $1.50 below Oman/Dubai (an ~$11/bbl swing from July), the biggest monthly cut in over two decades, signaling soft Asian demand. Strait of Hormuz throughput held above ~10M bpd with UAE exports above 3.9M bpd, while US-Iran follow-up talks stayed paused for Ayatollah Khamenei's July 4-9 state funeral, its second day of rites held in Tehran July 5.CNBC / S&P Global / AGBI

5. 2026-07-06Partially blocked

   Crude opened the week little changed at pre-war multi-month lows (Brent ~$71.88, WTI ~$68.58) as the market shrugged off OPEC+'s July 5 fifth straight ~188,000 bpd August output hike, while Saudi Aramco CUT its August Arab Light OSP to Asia to about $1.50 below Oman/Dubai — the biggest monthly cut in over two decades — a bearish demand signal. Data showed Saudi Arabia has moved ~34M barrels through Hormuz since June 17, more than double its March-June volume, with eleven supertankers entering the Gulf June 23-July 1, though total strait traffic stays far below the pre-war ~130 vessels/day. US-Iran follow-up diplomacy remained paused for Khamenei's state funeral; US markets reopened after the Independence Day break.S&P Global / OilPrice.com / CNBC

6. 2026-07-07Partially blocked

   The laden Qatari LNG carrier Al Rekayyat (owned by state shipper Nakilat) was struck by a projectile on its port side about 8 nautical miles off Limah, Oman at 1:19 a.m. local, sparking an engine-room fire with no casualties reported (UK maritime authorities). US and UK officials blamed Iran; Iranian state TV said the vessel was targeted after ignoring warnings against transiting the 'Omani route,' though Tehran issued no official claim. It was the first Qatari LNG tanker hit — and the first vessel attack — since the June US-Iran framework. European gas jumped as much as ~4.5% and crude ticked up (Brent ~$72.9, WTI ~$68.9) as a risk premium returned to a market that had priced a glut; US-Iran follow-up talks stayed paused for Khamenei's funeral.gCaptain / UPI / The Hill (AP)

7. 2026-07-07Partially blocked

   Escalation: after the Qatari LNG carrier Al Rekayyat and at least two other vessels were struck in and near the Strait of Hormuz (Qatar blaming Iran), US Central Command resumed 'powerful strikes' on Iran and the US Treasury REVOKED its waiver authorizing Iranian oil sales, barring new sales after July 7 with a 10-day wind-down requiring payment into blocked, interest-bearing US accounts. Crude reversed its glut-driven slide: Brent settled +3% at $74.16 and WTI +2.8% at $70.44, then spiked after-hours (Brent ~$76.04, WTI ~$72.25) on the revocation. US officials called the strikes 'wholly unacceptable' but said negotiators still worked 'in good faith'; US-Iran diplomacy stayed paused for Khamenei's July 4-9 funeral.CNBC / Bloomberg / Times of Israel

8. 2026-07-08Partially blocked

   Oil rocketed as the US struck more than 80 Iranian targets and revoked Iran’s oil-sales waiver (OFAC set a July 17 wind-down) after Iran hit three commercial vessels in and near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s IRGC claimed retaliatory strikes on 85 US sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, and Trump declared the memorandum "over." Brent jumped ~7.4% to ~$79.65 and WTI ~7% to ~$75.38 — the sharpest daily gain of the crisis — as the US-led Joint Maritime Information Center raised the Hormuz threat assessment to "severe" and transits fell to ~34/day versus ~83 normal.CNBC / Rigzone / NOTUS

9. 2026-07-08Partially blocked

   By the July 8 US close crude pared its intraday spike: Brent settled +5.43% at $78.19 and WTI +4.37% at $73.52 after touching ~$79.65/$75.38, easing only when Trump said he did not expect a return to full-scale war. Wall Street absorbed the escalation — the Dow fell 576.76 points (-1.09%) to 52,348.39 and the S&P 500 slipped 0.28%, with energy the lone gaining sector, while the Nasdaq edged up ~0.2%. The Joint Maritime Information Center held its Hormuz threat assessment at 'severe' with transits near ~34/day, war-risk insurance ~8x pre-crisis; OPEC+'s fifth-straight ~188k bpd August hike and a persistent glut capped the rally.CNBC / Yahoo Finance / PortWatch

10. 2026-07-09Partially blocked

    Crude whipsawed on July 9: Brent spiked to about $79.25/bbl at the US open — its highest since June 22 — after the US struck ~90 Iranian targets overnight (following ~80 on July 7-8, including the Bushehr nuclear-plant perimeter) and Iran fired missiles and drones at US assets in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan. Both benchmarks then reversed lower by midday, Brent about -1.3% to ~$76.98 and WTI about -1.6% to ~$72.38, as traders judged Strait of Hormuz flows were not actually cut and OPEC+ supply capped the war premium. The US-led Joint Maritime Information Center held the Hormuz threat assessment at 'severe' with transits near ~34/day.CNBC / NPR

11. 2026-07-10Partially blocked

    The US paused its strike campaign on a third day of exchanges and demanded Iran publicly declare the Strait of Hormuz open by Saturday and halt attacks on commercial ships; Qatari mediators reached Tehran and FM Araghchi headed to Oman. Lloyd's List Intelligence reported no large vessel crossing the US-coordinated southern route with AIS on since July 7 (~92% below normal), with roughly 6,000 seafarers stranded. Crude eased Friday but locked in a sharp weekly gain — Brent settled $76.01 (-0.4%) and WTI $71.41 (-0.9%), both up ~5.5%/4% on the week — as OPEC+ supply and returning Iranian barrels capped the war premium; the AAA pump average edged up to ~$3.88.Al Jazeera / Lloyd's List / Euronext (Reuters) / AAA

12. 2026-07-11Partially blocked

    Over the weekend the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively halted to large commercial traffic: Lloyd's List Intelligence reported no vessel above 10,000 dwt had transited the US-coordinated southern route with AIS transponders on since July 7 (at least two believed to have crossed 'dark'), leaving flows ~92% below normal with roughly 6,000 seafarers stranded. The US demanded Iran publicly declare the strait open by Saturday and halt attacks on ships; FM Araghchi was set to meet Oman's FM in Muscat. Crude held Friday's settles (Brent $76.01, WTI $71.41) with US markets closed; the war-risk premium stayed capped by returning Iranian crude and OPEC+ supply.Al Jazeera / Lloyd's List Intelligence / Axios

13. 2026-07-11Partially blocked

    Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi met Oman's FM Badr al-Busaidi in Muscat on Saturday for talks on 'safe transit mechanisms' through the Strait of Hormuz, but the Oman-mediated session produced no public Iranian declaration reopening the waterway as the US deadline effectively passed. Trump warned overnight that '1,000 missiles are locked and loaded'; large-vessel traffic stayed ~92% below normal with roughly 6,000 seafarers stranded. Crude held Friday's settles (Brent $76.01, WTI $71.41) with US markets closed.The National / Axios

14. 2026-07-11Partially blocked

    With the US Saturday deadline lapsed and no public Iranian reopening, Iran's IRGC navy declared the Strait of Hormuz 'closed until further notice' until US 'interference' ends and fired a warning shot at a tanker it said used an unapproved route, while its foreign ministry framed the Muscat talks as sovereign consultation. Muscat floated splitting traffic into a free southern corridor and an Iran-approved northern corridor; crude held Friday's settles (Brent $76.01, WTI $71.41) with US markets closed and large-vessel flows ~92% below normal.Times of Israel / CNN

15. 2026-07-12Partially blocked

    US Central Command struck about 140 Iranian targets overnight after the IRGC fired on the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy and declared the Strait of Hormuz 'closed until further notice.' Iran launched retaliatory attacks toward Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE, which Gulf forces said they intercepted, while Iran's and Oman's foreign ministers continued Muscat talks on a two-route navigation plan. Large-vessel flows held ~92% below normal; with US markets closed for the weekend, crude held Friday's settles (Brent $76.01, WTI $71.41).NPR / The Hill / Press TV

16. 2026-07-13Partially blocked

    Crude jumped about 4% as US markets reopened Monday (Brent toward $79, WTI above $74) after the US launched another round of strikes on Iran over the weekend — CENTCOM says 300+ targets over three nights, with one-way attack sea drones used for the first time — following the IRGC's attack on the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy. Tehran declared Hormuz 'closed until further notice' and claimed retaliatory strikes on five Gulf states; CENTCOM rejected the closure. Large-vessel transits stayed ~92% below normal.CNBC / Al Jazeera

17. 2026-07-13Partially blocked

    By midday Monday the US struck Iranian port sites at Bandar Abbas, Jask, Sirik and Qeshm Island and Trump declared the US is reinstating its naval blockade of Iranian shipping — calling America the 'guardian of the Hormuz Strait' and demanding a 20% cargo fee, effectively cancelling the interim deal's core term. Iran's IRGC held that the strait is 'closed until further notice' while US officials insisted Iran does not control it. Brent held about 4% higher near $79 as transits stayed near a five-week low.Forbes / RFE-RL / Al Jazeera

18. 2026-07-13Partially blocked

    By the Monday US close crude settled sharply higher, snapping a two-day slide: WTI rose more than 8% to about $77/bbl (a roughly one-month high) and Brent gained about 4% to near $78.85 after Trump moved to reinstate a naval blockade of Iranian shipping and demanded a 20% Hormuz cargo fee. US equities closed lower — the S&P 500 -0.79% to 7,515.34, Nasdaq -1.55% to 25,873.18, Dow -0.26% to 52,498.64 — as a global chip rout (SK Hynix -15%, Samsung -11%; Seoul's Kospi -9% and circuit-broken) paced tech losses while energy shares cushioned the Dow. Large-vessel Hormuz transits held ~92% below normal; the 10-year Treasury yield rose to ~4.58% ahead of June CPI (Tuesday) and Fed Chair Warsh's first congressional testimony.Yahoo Finance / Trading Economics / CNBC

19. 2026-07-14Partially blocked

    Crude settled at a one-month high on July 14 — Brent +1.72% to $84.73 and WTI +1.5% to $79.34, both touching ~$87 intraday — as the US reinstated a naval blockade, narrowed to Iranian vessels only, at 4 p.m. ET after a fifth consecutive night of CENTCOM strikes (including Bushehr and Bandar Abbas). Trump abandoned his one-day-old 20% Hormuz cargo toll after shipping-industry pushback and an IMO ruling that mandatory strait tolls are illegal, declaring the strait 'open to ALL Ship traffic except for Iran'; Iran called the blockade 'piracy' and said it disabled two UAE tankers, killing an Indian crew member. Verified transits stayed ~92% below normal.CNBC / NPR / Al Jazeera

20. 2026-07-15Partially blocked

    The US Iran-only naval blockade held into a second day as CENTCOM carried out an overnight 'seven-hour' wave and a rare ~90-minute daytime wave on Greater Tunb Island and Iranian coastal/port targets (Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, Sirik, Bushehr); the US said it had redirected two commercial vessels since restarting the blockade. Iran's IRGC claimed 'Operation Nasr 2' retaliation on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan and threatened to halt all Middle East energy exports. Crude held near a one-month high but was little changed by afternoon — Brent ~$84.7-85.8 and WTI ~$79.1 — after both touched ~$87 on July 14; only ~17 vessels transited Hormuz on July 14.CNBC / NBC News / Al Jazeera

21. 2026-07-16Partially blocked

    US strikes widened to the Hormuz port of Sirik and Greater Tunb Island as the Iran-only blockade held into a third day; Iran's army called Hormuz an 'unbreakable red line' and reported 35+ killed. Reuters said Tehran told the Houthis to ready a Bab el-Mandeb closure if the US hits its power grid, and the IEA warned the global economy is 'in peril.' Transits fell to ~10/day; Brent rose a fourth straight session to ~$85 and WTI held above $80.CNBC / Reuters / Bloomberg

22. 2026-07-16Partially blocked

    Iraq briefly suspended crude loadings at its southern Basra Oil Terminal after a drone crashed near a Liberian-flagged tanker without exploding; loadings resumed within hours at normal rates, with SOMO saying the terminal was not the target. Crude extended a fourth straight gain — Brent settled +0.4% at $85.28 and WTI closed above $80 for the first time at $80.02 (+0.5%) — as the US Iran-only Hormuz blockade held into a third day, strikes widened to the port of Sirik and Greater Tunb Island, and the IEA warned the global economy is 'in peril.' Transits held near ~10/day.Bloomberg / Reuters / CNBC

23. 2026-07-17Partially blocked

    US strikes widened overnight to Bandar Abbas, a rail junction and two Khamir County bridges with explosions near Qeshm Island (7+ reported killed) as the Iran-only blockade held into a fourth day; Iran's IRGC fired missiles and drones at US positions in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan under 'Operation Nasr 2' and Kuwait intercepted 32 drones. The UN Security Council met in emergency session; Reuters reported Iran told the Houthis to ready a Bab el-Mandeb closure if the US hits its power grid. Crude held near one-month highs (July 16 settles Brent ~$84.95 / WTI ~$79.60).Bloomberg / NPR / Reuters

24. 2026-07-17Partially blocked

    US strikes widened to bridges around Bandar Abbas and the Chabahar port control tower, an airport and a railway station (Iran's toll to 38 killed, 400+ injured) as the Iran-only blockade held into a sixth-plus night. Iran struck a Kuwait power and water-desalination plant and hit other Gulf targets; the US-led Joint Maritime Information Center held its Hormuz advisory at 'severe.' Crude settled at a one-month high — Brent about $88.10 (+4.6%) and WTI about $82.49 (+4.5%), both up roughly 12% on the week — after Reuters reported Iran asked the Houthis to ready a Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea closure.CNBC / Reuters (Investing.com) / The National

25. 2026-07-18Partially blocked

    The US Iran-only naval blockade held into the weekend (day 137) after Friday's escalation, in which Iran struck a Kuwait power and water-desalination plant and CENTCOM widened strikes around Bandar Abbas and Chabahar (Iran's reported toll ~38 killed, 400+ injured). With US markets closed for the weekend, crude carried Friday's one-month-high settles (Brent ~$88.10 / WTI ~$82.49, both up ~12% on the week). Reuters reporting that Iran asked Yemen's Houthis to ready a Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea closure kept a second-chokepoint premium in the market; Hormuz transits stayed near ~10/day vs ~88 normal, with 'dark' AIS and Oman ship-to-ship transfers indicating some flows continue.CNBC / Bloomberg / Reuters

26. 2026-07-18Partially blocked

    The US-Iran conflict entered a third straight weekend of fighting: CENTCOM pressed an eighth night of strikes, widening to bridges around Bandar Abbas, and Iran struck US positions in Jordan — killing two US service members and leaving one missing (the first US combat deaths since March). An Iranian strike also set Bahrain's ~400,000 bbl/d Bapco refinery ablaze before the fire was contained. Iran declared it would no longer implement last month's agreement. With US markets closed, crude held Friday's one-month-high settles (Brent ~$88.10 / WTI ~$82.49, both +~12% on the week); Hormuz transits stayed near ~10/day vs ~88 normal and the Bab el-Mandeb closure threat lingered.CNN / NPR / Al Jazeera

27. 2026-07-19Partially blocked

    Into a third weekend of war, the US Iran-only naval blockade held at day 139. With US markets closed, crude stayed near Friday's one-month-high settles (Brent ~$88.10 / WTI ~$82.49, both ~+12% on the week). Overnight US strikes hit a desalination plant in Iran's Jask (Tehran called it a war crime) and Iran declared it was suspending commitments under the June memorandum. Hormuz transits held near ~10/day vs ~88 normal, with 'dark' AIS and Oman ship-to-ship transfers indicating some flows continue and the Bab el-Mandeb closure threat still lingering.CNBC / Al Jazeera / NPR

28. 2026-07-20Partially blocked

    Oil pared a sharp opening spike by the Monday US close: Brent (Sep) topped $90 and WTI neared $84.50 at the reopen on a ninth-into-tenth night of US strikes and a third US combat death, then eased — Brent back toward ~$88, WTI toward ~$82 — after Iranian state media said Tehran received mediator proposals to resume talks. US equities closed lower on the oil scare (S&P 500 -0.19% to 7,443.28; Dow -307 pts to 51,839.26) even as semiconductors rebounded ~3%. Hormuz transits held near ~10/day vs ~88 normal; a persistent OPEC+ glut capped the war premium.CNBC / Gulf News / Trading Economics

29. 2026-07-21Partially blocked

    Crude climbed again on Tuesday, Brent up ~2.1% to about $91/bbl and WTI up ~2.2% to about $84/bbl, after a 10th consecutive day of US strikes on Iran and reports another oil-products tanker was struck near the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker and gas-carrier transits fell to roughly 30/day from ~90 normally, and Lloyd's List Intelligence logged just 53 vessel transits in the week to July 20 — down 66% from 157 the prior week. Yemen's Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb, turning at least one Saudi crude tanker around and adding a second-chokepoint premium, even as mediators pressed a roughly 10-day ceasefire to revive the June memorandum. AAA's national pump average held at about $4.02.CNBC / Trading Economics / Fortune

30. 2026-07-22Partially blocked

    The US struck southern Iran for a 12th straight night as crude jumped to five-to-six-week highs — Brent settled about $94 and WTI about $87 on July 22 (intraday toward ~$95) — after Secretary of State Rubio said Iran was 'not serious' about peace and the Houthis widened their Bab el-Mandeb blockade to any ship calling at Saudi ports. Verified Hormuz transits held near ~8-14/day versus 100-plus before the war, with US forces disabling roughly one vessel a day, as mediators pressed a 10-day ceasefire and Trump threatened Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site.CNBC / NBC News / The Hill (AP)

31. 2026-07-23Partially blocked

    On Day 146 of the US Iran-only naval blockade, crude spiked to multi-month highs on July 23: Brent briefly topped $100/bbl for the first time since late May (WTI near $90) as the maritime war widened to a second front — Iran-aligned Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers (Encelia and Layla) in the Red Sea enforcing their Bab el-Mandeb embargo, at least seven vessels rerouted, Kazakhstan halted CPC/Caspian crude exports after drone attacks, and Trump vowed to hold Iran responsible and strike an Iranian bridge or power plant for each ship attacked in Hormuz. Saudi Arabia suspended Red Sea oil shipments. Verified Hormuz transits held near ~9 outbound versus 100-plus pre-war.CNBC / Washington Post / Fortune

32. 2026-07-24Partially blocked

    Into Day 147, crude held near multi-month highs after Brent's July 23 close above $100 (WTI ~$92.36) as CENTCOM completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes and Iran retaliated across Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, including a Kuwait telecom tower. Iran was reported to have rejected the latest US ceasefire proposal relayed by Iraq's PM; FM Araghchi called Trump's plan to fund ship-repair claims from seized Iranian assets an 'incendiary precedent.' Trump said he is 'close' to deciding on the largest strikes yet and eyed the underground Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site. Verified Hormuz transits held near ~9 outbound versus 100-plus pre-war; AAA's pump average was ~$4.09.Al Jazeera / CNN / Euronews

33. 2026-07-24Partially blocked

    On Day 148 of the US Iran-only naval blockade, crude reversed sharply lower - Brent fell ~3-5% back below $95 (quoted near $97 early) and WTI ~4.7% to about $88 - on a report that Pakistan, with China's backing, is pushing to revive US-Iran talks, even as CENTCOM completed a 13th straight night of strikes, the Houthi Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb blockade persisted and Kazakhstan's CPC export halt stayed unresolved. Both benchmarks still headed for a ~10% weekly gain (Brent ~+33% on the month). Verified Hormuz transits held near ~9/day versus 100-plus pre-war; AAA's pump average edged to ~$4.105.CNBC / Trading Economics

34. 2026-07-25Partially blocked

    Into Day 149 of the US Iran-only naval blockade, crude held its July 24 pullback below $100 (Brent ~$96.78 / WTI ~$89.31 settles) after the China-backed Pakistani push to revive US-Iran talks eased the war premium, even as CENTCOM's strike campaign and the Houthi Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb blockade persisted and Kazakhstan's CPC export halt stayed unresolved. Iran's FM Araghchi reiterated Tehran will not accept a temporary ceasefire without progress on its Hormuz demands, capping the downside; Trump said Iran is 'getting more serious' in talks while stressing no decision on larger strikes. Verified Hormuz transits held near ~9/day versus 100-plus pre-war; AAA's pump average held near ~$4.105.CNBC / RFE-RL / Fortune

35. 2026-07-25Partially blocked

    Into Day 150 of the US Iran-only naval blockade, the war saw its first overnight strike pause after 13 straight nights as Oman-mediated talks reportedly advanced on reopening the strait; Trump said the US had 'not yet decided' on major new strikes but stayed 'locked and loaded,' while FM Araghchi ruled out even a temporary ceasefire absent progress on Iran's Hormuz demands. A new front opened as Saudi Arabia struck Houthi-held Hodeida and the Houthis hit Saudi Aramco's Yanbu and Jizan sites, setting a Jazan-refinery fire. With US markets closed for the weekend, crude held its July 24 pullback (Brent ~$96.78 / WTI ~$89.31 settles); verified Hormuz transits held near ~9/day versus 100-plus pre-war and AAA's pump average edged to ~$4.111.CNN / Fortune / Washington Post

36. 2026-07-26Partially blocked

    Crude round-tripped over the weekend: after Saturday's Houthi strike on Aramco's Yanbu hub and Jizan refinery (~400k bpd, ablaze) and the CPC Black Sea loading halt pushed Brent back above $100, prices reversed sharply in Sunday electronic trade — Trading Economics quoted Brent ~$90.95 (session open ~$100.67, ~-7.6%) — as tariff/demand worries, an extended US strike pause into a second night and advancing Oman-mediated Hormuz talks drained the war premium. Saudi Arabia evacuated ships from the Jizan oil terminal. Both benchmarks still held ~10% weekly gains (Brent ~+40% on the month); verified Hormuz transits held near ~9 outbound/day vs 100-plus pre-war; AAA's pump average held ~$4.111.Trading Economics / Daily Yemen / HNGN

37. 2026-07-27Partially blocked

    Into Day 152, the US-Iran strike pause held into a third night as Oman-mediated Hormuz talks were called productive, and crude settled sharply lower Monday - Brent (Sep) -8.7% to $88.36 (lowest since July 17) and WTI -7.5% to $82.61 (lowest since July 16) - fully reversing the weekend spike above $100 that Saturday's Houthi strike on Aramco's Yanbu/Jizan and the CPC Black Sea halt had driven. Iran signaled it will keep attacks paused as long as the US pause holds; US stocks were mixed (Dow +0.51%, Nasdaq -0.18% on a ~5% Nvidia drop) and the 10-year yield eased to ~4.64% into the July 28-29 FOMC. The CPC halt and Houthi Bab el-Mandeb blockade stayed unresolved.Reuters (Yahoo) / NBC News / Trading Economics

38. 2026-07-28Partially blocked

    Crude settled lower for a third straight session on Tuesday July 28 — Brent (Sep) finished $84.09/bbl (-4.8%) and WTI $79.26 (-4.0%), fully unwinding last week's spike above $100, after Monday's -8.7%/-7.5% settles ($88.36/$82.61) — as Trump, hosting Netanyahu and Zelensky at the White House, said the US and Iran are in 'good talks' to end the war and the strike pause held into a fourth day. Iran held Hormuz talks with Saudi Arabia and Oman while denying any direct US negotiations. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium resumed Novorossiysk loadings July 27, reopening a Black Sea route halted since ~July 21, though the Houthi Bab el-Mandeb blockade stayed unresolved. On Wall Street a China-driven chip rout (CXMT's 466% Shanghai debut, domestic DUV-tool news) deepened into a fourth day, but falling oil and a 10-year yield down to ~4.62% lifted the Dow +537.24 (+1.03%) to 52,747.32 and the S&P 500 +0.21% to 7,428.78, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.22% to 24,876.91, ahead of the July 29 FOMC and Microsoft/Meta earnings. AAA's pump average held ~$4.099; verified Hormuz transits held near ~9/day vs 140 pre-war.CNBC / Fortune / Trading Economics

39. 2026-07-29Partially blocked

    The days-long US-Iran strike pause frayed: late July 28 (~5:45pm ET) Iran's IRGC fired a surprise ballistic-missile salvo at a US base in Jordan, which CENTCOM said was fully intercepted, and US and Saudi forces struck Iran-aligned forces in Iraq in response. Crude, which had settled lower a third straight session July 28 (Brent $84.09, WTI $79.26), rebounded in July 29 Asian trade — WTI +~4.4% to ~$82.73 and Brent +~4% toward ~$88 — paring roughly a sixth of the prior three-session drop and reinjecting a war premium ahead of the July 29 FOMC. Verified Hormuz transits held near ~9/day versus 140 pre-war; AAA's national pump average held ~$4.099.CNBC / Bloomberg / Trading Economics

• A surprise Iranian ballistic-missile attack on a US base in Jordan late July 28 — CENTCOM said the salvo was fully intercepted, and US and Saudi forces struck Iran-aligned forces in Iraq in response — broke the days-long strike pause and jolted crude higher in July 29 Asian trade: WTI rose about 4.4% to ~$82.73 and Brent about 4% toward ~$88, paring roughly a sixth of the prior three-session, ~16% slide. The renewed war premium arrived as Wall Street's chip-driven split persisted (Dow at a record 52,747.32; Nasdaq down a fourth straight session on SK Hynix's record-but-below-consensus earnings and a global memory rout) and as markets awaited the July 29 FOMC (hold vs. hike, roughly 62/38 odds) and after-close Microsoft and Meta earnings. AAA's pump average held ~$4.099.

  CNBC / Bloomberg / Trading Economics2026-07-29

• Crude settled lower for a third straight session on July 28: Brent (Sep) finished $84.09/bbl (-4.8%) and WTI $79.26 (-4.0%), fully unwinding the spike above $100 as the US-Iran strike pause held into a fourth day and Iran held Hormuz talks with Saudi Arabia and Oman while denying direct US negotiations. Falling oil and a 10-year yield down to ~4.62% lifted the Dow +537.24 (+1.03%) to 52,747.32 and the S&P 500 +0.21% to 7,428.78 in a rotation out of chips, while a China-driven memory rout (CXMT's 466% Shanghai IPO, domestic DUV-tool news) sent the Nasdaq down 0.22% to 24,876.91 for a fourth straight loss, ahead of the July 29 FOMC and Microsoft/Meta earnings. AAA's pump average held ~$4.099.

  CNBC / Fortune / Trading Economics2026-07-28

• Crude settled at a one-week low Monday July 27 as the US-Iran strike pause held into a third night and Oman-Iran Hormuz talks resumed: Brent (Sep) settled $88.36 (-$8.42, -8.7%, lowest since July 17) and WTI $82.61 (-$6.70, -7.5%, lowest since July 16), unwinding the weekend spike above $100 driven by the Houthi Aramco strike and the CPC Black Sea halt. Iran said it will keep attacks paused as long as the US pause holds; the 10-year Treasury yield eased to ~4.64% and swaps priced ~34% odds of a July 29 Fed hike. AAA national pump average held ~$4.11.

  Reuters (Yahoo) / NBC News / Trading Economics2026-07-27

• By Monday July 27 midday crude had unwound the entire weekend spike: Brent (Sep) fell about 7.4% toward ~$89.58/bbl (below $90 intraday) and WTI about 6.8% to ~$83.25 - the biggest one-day crude drop since late May - as the US-Iran strike pause held into a third night, Iran and Oman concluded two days of Hormuz talks that Tehran called 'productive' with the strait's transit status unchanged, and spokesman Baghaei said Iran has 'no negotiations with the United States.' Iran signaled it will keep attacks paused as long as the US pause holds, draining the war premium that Saturday's Houthi strike on Aramco's Yanbu/Jizan and the CPC Black Sea halt had briefly driven above $100. Both benchmarks pared roughly half the intraday loss by midday and still held ~40% month-to-date gains; AAA's national pump average held ~$4.11 ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC.

  CNBC / Euronews / Trading Economics2026-07-27

• After a Houthi strike on Saudi Aramco's Yanbu export hub and Jizan refinery (~400k bpd, set ablaze) and a Caspian Pipeline Consortium halt pushed Brent back above $100 in Saturday electronic trade, crude reversed sharply on Sunday July 26 - Trading Economics quoted Brent ~$90.95/bbl (session open ~$100.67, ~-7.6%) - as tariff/demand worries, an extended US strike pause and advancing Oman-mediated Hormuz talks drained the war premium; Brent still held a ~10% weekly gain (~+40% on the month). Saudi Arabia evacuated ships from the Jizan terminal.

  Trading Economics / Daily Yemen2026-07-26

• Markets head into the July 28-29 FOMC pricing ~65% odds of a hold at 3.50-3.75% but ~35-38% for a July hike (up from ~11% a week earlier) and ~82% for a September hike, as the weekend crude surge back above $100 and a 10-year Treasury yield near its highest since January 2025 (~4.70%) revived inflation fears under hawkish Chair Kevin Warsh.

  CBS News / HNGN (CME FedWatch)2026-07-26

• Into July 26 the US strike pause on Iran held into a second night as Oman-Iran technical talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz were called productive early Sunday, even as the war visibly merged fronts: the Houthis struck Saudi Aramco's Yanbu export hub and Jizan refinery (~400k bpd fire) after Saudi strikes on Hodeida, the Caspian Pipeline suspended Black Sea loadings following a Ukrainian drone strike, and a separate Ukrainian strike hit an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea — a third waterway drawn in after Hormuz and the Red Sea. Brent pushed back above $100 in thin Saturday electronic trade (July 24 settles ~$96.78 Brent / ~$89.31 WTI, both up ~10% on the week and Brent ~+40% on the month); AAA's national pump average held ~$4.111.

  CNN / Washington Post / Al Jazeera2026-07-26

• Into July 25 the war saw its first overnight US strike pause after 13 straight nights as Oman-mediated talks reportedly advanced on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, even as a new front opened: Saudi Arabia struck Houthi-held Hodeida and the Houthis hit Saudi Aramco sites at Yanbu and Jizan, setting a Jazan-refinery fire and reintroducing supply risk after crude's Friday pullback (Brent ~$96.78 / WTI ~$89.31 July 24 settles). With US markets closed for the weekend, both benchmarks held the week ~10% higher (Brent ~+40% on the month); Iran's FM Araghchi ruled out even a temporary ceasefire absent progress on Hormuz. AAA's national pump average edged to ~$4.111.

  CNN / Fortune / Washington Post2026-07-25

• Into July 25 crude held its July 24 pullback below $100 - Brent's July 24 settle was ~$96.78/bbl (down ~3.9%) and WTI ~$89.31 (down ~3.1%), the biggest one-day drop since late June - after a Reuters report that Pakistan, with China's backing, is pushing to revive stalled US-Iran talks. Iran's FM Araghchi said Tehran will not accept even a temporary ceasefire without progress on its Strait of Hormuz demands, keeping a floor under prices; both benchmarks still ended the week ~10% higher (Brent ~+33% on the month). The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.70%, its highest since January 2025, lifting July 28-29 Fed rate-hike odds toward ~35-38%, and AAA's national pump average held near $4.105.

  CNBC / Reuters (US News) / The Motley Fool2026-07-25

• By the July 24 close crude had reversed lower for the day but ended the week sharply higher: Brent settled near $96-97/bbl (down ~4%, its biggest one-day drop since late June) and WTI near $90 (down ~2.3%), off Thursday's spike above $100, after a report that Pakistan, backed by China, is pushing to revive stalled US-Iran talks. Both benchmarks still ended ~10% higher on the week and Brent ~+33% on the month. The oil pullback let the Dow rebound ~0.5% even as the Nasdaq logged a second straight weekly loss, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.71% - its highest since January 2025 - lifting July Fed rate-hike odds to ~33%. AAA's national pump average held near $4.105.

  Bloomberg / CNBC / The Motley Fool2026-07-24

• Crude reversed sharply lower on July 24 - Brent fell ~3-5% back below $95 and WTI ~4.7% to ~$88 - after a report that Pakistan, with China's backing, is pushing to revive US-Iran talks, though both benchmarks still headed for a ~10% weekly gain (Brent ~+33% on the month). The pullback let Wall Street rebound (Dow +~0.7%, S&P +~0.5%) after Thursday's Brent-tops-$100 selloff, while new US forced-labor tariffs of 10-12.5% on 60 countries took effect at 12:01am EDT. AAA's pump average edged to ~$4.105.

  CNBC / Trading Economics / NBC News2026-07-24

• Into July 24 (blockade day 147), crude held near multi-month highs after Brent's July 23 close above $100 (WTI ~$92.36) as CENTCOM completed a 13th straight night of strikes and Iran retaliated across Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. Iran was reported to have rejected the latest US ceasefire proposal relayed by Iraq's PM, and Trump said he is 'close' to deciding on the largest strikes yet while threatening to fund ship-damage repairs from seized Iranian assets. AAA's national pump average held near $4.09.

  Al Jazeera / CNN / Euronews2026-07-24

• Crude settled above $100 on July 23: Brent finished around $100.65/bbl (up ~7%) and WTI around $92.36 - Brent's first close above $100 since late May - after Houthi strikes on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Trump's threat of 'major military punishment' on Iran for any ship attack. The oil shock helped drag Wall Street lower (Nasdaq -2.15% to 25,137.69, S&P 500 -1.21% to 7,408.30, Dow -0.97% to 51,711.65) and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to a 2026 high; AAA's national pump average rose ~15 cents on the week to ~$4.09.

  CNBC / Fortune / Yahoo Finance2026-07-23

• Brent crude briefly topped $100/barrel intraday on July 23 for the first time since late May, and WTI neared $90, after Iran-aligned Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers (Encelia and Layla) in the Red Sea and Trump threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure for any Hormuz ship attack. Brent is up roughly 40% on the month; Saudi Arabia temporarily suspended Red Sea oil shipments.

  CNBC / Washington Post2026-07-23

• On July 23 crude surged again: Brent jumped about 4.6% toward $98.4/bbl (its highest since late May) and WTI about 3.8% to $90.1 (highest since June 8), from July 22 settles near $94.07/$86.83, after Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Trump's threat to bomb Iranian infrastructure for Hormuz ship attacks. Brent is on track for a ~35% July gain, its third-biggest monthly jump in a decade. AAA's national pump average held near $4.06.

  CNBC / NBC News / Fortune2026-07-23

• On July 22 Brent settled about $94.07/bbl (up ~3.4%, briefly topping $95 intraday) and WTI about $86.83 - the highest in over a month - as Yemen's Houthis struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea enforcing their Bab el-Mandeb blockade, the IRGC warned the southern Hormuz route is mined, and Trump threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship attacked in Hormuz. AAA's national pump average edged to ~$4.06.

  Yahoo Finance / CNBC / AAA2026-07-22

• On July 22 crude jumped to five-to-six-week highs on a 12th straight night of US strikes: Brent settled about $94 (+3.4%) and WTI about $87, with intraday quotes toward ~$95, after Secretary of State Rubio said Iran was 'not serious' about peace. Verified Strait of Hormuz transits held near ~8-14/day versus 100-plus before the war as the Houthis widened their Bab el-Mandeb blockade to Saudi-bound ships and mediators pressed a roughly 10-day ceasefire.

  CNBC / NBC News2026-07-22

• On July 22 crude pushed toward multi-week highs on an 11th straight night of US strikes: two independent quote sources put WTI near $84.4/bbl (oilprice.com) with Brent quoted around $91 at the July 21 settle and climbing toward ~$95 intraday (Fortune), as another products tanker was struck near Hormuz and the Houthis widened their Bab el-Mandeb blockade to Saudi-bound ships. Verified Strait of Hormuz transits held near ~8/day versus 100-plus before the war while mediators pressed a roughly 10-day ceasefire.

  OilPrice.com / Fortune / CNBC2026-07-22

• Oil rose again on July 21 — Brent up ~2.1% to about $91/bbl and WTI up ~2.2% to about $84/bbl — after a 10th consecutive day of US strikes on Iran and reports another products tanker was struck near Hormuz. Yemen's Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb, turning at least one Saudi crude tanker around and adding a second-chokepoint premium as mediators pressed a roughly 10-day ceasefire.

  CNBC / Fortune / Trading Economics2026-07-21

• Tanker and gas-carrier transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to roughly 30 crossings a day from about 90 normally, and Lloyd's List Intelligence logged just 53 vessel transits in the week to July 20 — down 66% from 157 the prior week — as shipowners shun the corridor amid the renewed US-Iran fighting.

  CNBC / Lloyd's List Intelligence2026-07-21

• S&P Global tracked just ~40 Hormuz transits over July 17-19 (~13/day) and only ~11 vessels in the latest 24-hour window versus a ~33-vessel pre-conflict route baseline; overall flows are near ~15% of pre-war levels. Iran has struck seven commercial vessels since the truce collapsed around July 7.

  CNBC2026-07-21

• By the Monday July 20 close oil pared a sharp spike — Brent (Sep) topped $90 and WTI neared $84.50 at the US reopen on a tenth night of strikes and a third US combat death, then eased toward ~$88/~$82 after Iranian state media said Tehran received mediator proposals for a roughly 10-day pause; a persistent OPEC+ glut kept capping the war premium.

  CNBC / Gulf News2026-07-21

• By the Monday July 20 close, oil had pared a sharp spike: Brent (Sep) topped $90 and WTI neared $84.50 at the US reopen on a tenth night of US strikes and a third US combat death, then eased — Brent back toward ~$88, WTI ~$82 — after Iranian state media said Tehran received mediator proposals to resume talks.

  CNBC / Gulf News2026-07-20

• Market-implied odds of a July 28-29 Fed rate hike held near 50% despite a soft June CPI (headline 3.5% y/y, -0.4% m/m — the biggest monthly drop since April 2020; core steady at 2.6%), as the oil spike above $90 revived inflation fears under a hawkish, Warsh-led Fed.

  Bloomberg / CNBC2026-07-20

• On July 20, 2026 the AAA national gasoline average returned to about $4.00/gal — its first time back at $4 in the renewed campaign and roughly 31% above the pre-war ~$3.05 — as crude reopened sharply higher (Brent topped $90 intraday before easing toward ~$88, WTI near ~$82) on a ninth night of US strikes and a third US death. Oil pared gains during the Monday session after Iranian state media said Tehran received mediator proposals to resume talks.

  AAA / CNBC / Trading Economics2026-07-20

• AAA's national gasoline average was about $3.95 on July 19, up roughly 10 cents on the week and about 29% above the pre-war level, and inching toward $4 as the US Iran-only Hormuz blockade held at day 139.

  AAA2026-07-19

• The US-Iran war escalated over the weekend of July 18 into an eighth night of strikes: CENTCOM widened its campaign to bridges around Bandar Abbas and Iran struck US positions in Jordan, killing two US service members and leaving one missing — the first US combat deaths since March. With US markets closed, crude held Friday's one-month-high settles (Brent ~$88.10 / WTI ~$82.49, both +~12% on the week) as a Bab el-Mandeb second-chokepoint threat lingered.

  CNN / NPR2026-07-18

• As fighting escalated into a seventh-plus night on July 18, an Iranian strike hit Bahrain's BAPCO refinery (~400,000 bbl/d) and set it ablaze, signaling Iran's ability to hit Gulf energy infrastructure, while the US revoked the waiver that had allowed Iran to sell oil in dollars — an energy-target escalation atop the Hormuz blockade.

  NPR2026-07-18

• Oil settled at a one-month high Friday July 17 — Brent ~$88.10 (+4.6%) and WTI ~$82.49 (+4.5%), both up ~12% on the week — after Iran struck a Kuwait power/water-desalination plant and CENTCOM completed another night of strikes on Iran.

  CNBC2026-07-17

• Reuters reported Iran asked Yemen's Houthis to ready a Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea closure if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure — a second chokepoint threat atop the Hormuz blockade.

  Reuters (Investing.com)2026-07-17

• Hormuz transits stayed near ~10/day vs ~88 normal; no vessel above 10,000 dwt has crossed the US-coordinated southern route with AIS on since July 7, though 'dark' transits and Oman ship-to-ship transfers indicate flows continue.

  Bloomberg2026-07-16

• The AAA national gasoline average was ~$3.94-3.95/gal on July 17-18 — up about 10 cents on the week and ~29% above the pre-war ~$3.05, still below the spring wartime peak near $4.56 — as AAA warned prices are inching toward $4.

  AAA2026-07-16

• Six US-sanctioned supertankers capable of carrying ~12M barrels passed through Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman in the past week with transponders off, as Iran works to evade the reimposed blockade.

  Bloomberg2026-07-14

• The IEA's July Oil Market Report warned the July escalation clouds the outlook and could upend its forecast of a 2027 market surplus; Gulf oil exports had surged +6.5 Mbpd in June to 16.1 Mbpd on partial Hormuz resumption before the renewed fighting.

  IEA2026-07-15

• Oil settled at a one-month high on Friday July 17, 2026 — Brent up about 4.6% to $88.10 and WTI up about 4.5% to $82.49, both roughly 12% higher on the week — after Kuwait said an Iranian strike damaged a power and water-desalination plant and CENTCOM completed a sixth straight night of strikes on Iran.

  CNBC2026-07-17

• Reuters reported Iran asked Yemen's Houthis to be ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea route — a key Saudi export corridor — if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure, adding a second chokepoint threat on top of the Hormuz blockade.

  Reuters (Investing.com)2026-07-17

• Iran struck a Kuwait power and water-desalination plant on July 17, sparking a fire that damaged generation units; Kuwait draws roughly 90% of its drinking water from desalination and said it had detected dozens of hostile drones and missiles in its airspace since the July 7 renewal.

  CNBC / Bloomberg2026-07-17