Follow the Oil

Insurance: War-risk premium ~0.2-0.4% of hull value (from 0.125% pre-crisis), ~+$250k per large-tanker transit

The Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of seaborne crude — remains effectively closed but is on the brink of reopening. The IRGC's June 11 'total closure' claim is disputed by US CENTCOM. President Trump said a US-Iran memorandum (the 'Islamabad Declaration') would be signed Sunday June 14 in Geneva by VP Vance and Iran's parliament speaker Qalibaf, reopening the strait within 30 days, but Iran's foreign ministry said on June 13 the deal would NOT be signed Sunday — possibly remotely 'in the coming days' — citing US 'instability.' No formal transit resumption is yet in force, and shipping trackers report near-zero verified outbound commercial transits for several consecutive days.

1. 2026-02-28Partially blocked

   US launches Operation Epic Fury against Iranian military and naval targets; Iran retaliates and first merchant ships are attacked.Wikipedia

2. 2026-03-03Blocked

   Iran declares the Strait closed; Lloyd's underwriters pull standard war-risk cover for Gulf transits.Reuters

3. 2026-03-27Effectively closed

   IRGC announces the Strait is shut to any vessel travelling to/from the US, Israel and their allies; Brent peaks near $118/bbl on the quarter.EIA — Today in Energy

4. 2026-04-08Partially blocked

   Conditional ceasefire agreed; Iran begins charging $1M+ tolls per transit as a handful of tankers move.Wikipedia

5. 2026-04-13Effectively closed

   US Navy begins enforcing a blockade of Iran-linked port traffic; the IMO reports ~20,000 mariners and ~2,000 ships stranded in the Gulf by April 21.CNN

6. 2026-06-07Effectively closed

   Oil eases toward $93 Brent / $90 WTI as US-Iran talks reportedly progress and OPEC+ approves a fourth output-quota hike (+188,000 bpd) since the closure; no confirmed transit resumption.CNBC

7. 2026-06-08Effectively closed

   Crude whipsaws on the war's 100th day: Brent spikes above $97-98 and WTI past $94 intraday after Iran's 'Operation Nasr' barrage and Israeli strikes on Iranian cities (including a reported hit on a Mahshahr petrochemical plant), then eases toward $94 Brent / $93-94 WTI after Iran says it has ended its operation and Trump cites ceasefire progress. The Strait stays shut and OPEC+ approves a fourth monthly quota hike (+188k bpd).CNBC

8. 2026-06-09Effectively closed

   US CENTCOM launched 'self-defense' strikes on naval, air-defense and coastal-missile sites in southern Iran (Qeshm, Sirik, Minab) late June 9, in response to the June 8 downing of a US Apache near Hormuz. Earlier that day oil fell 3-4% (Brent toward $91, WTI toward $88) after the US energy secretary said Strait traffic was 'rising very meaningfully' and the White House cited Iran nuclear-talks progress; the evening strikes revived disruption fears. The Strait stays effectively closed.CNBC

9. 2026-06-10Effectively closed

   Crude whipsaws: after rebounding overnight on the late-June-9 US CENTCOM strikes on southern Iran near Hormuz and Iran's retaliation against US Gulf bases, oil reversed lower in choppy US-morning trade (Brent back toward ~$92, WTI toward ~$88-91) as traders appeared to shrug off the latest exchange and refocus on the US May CPI release and weak Chinese demand (imports ~7.8 Mbpd, an 8-year low). The Strait stays effectively closed.Investing.com / CNBC

10. 2026-06-11Effectively closed

    Iran's IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels including oil tankers after a second night of US strikes on Iranian coastal sites, warning any ship attempting passage would be fired on and claiming it hit two ships; US CENTCOM disputed the closure, saying the strait remained open. Brent pushed above $96/bbl and WTI toward $92 as the war premium returned. Rystad calls the shutdown of roughly 11.8 Mbpd across six Gulf producers the most severe oil supply disruption in modern history.Al Jazeera / OilPrice.com

11. 2026-06-11Effectively closed

    Crude extended gains for a second day before paring back: WTI traded around $91.5/bbl (up ~1.7%) and Brent near $94-95 as the US completed a second day of strikes on Iran and Iran reportedly targeted US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz with missiles and drones. Reports cited signs that limited oil volumes were still moving out of the Gulf despite the IRGC's near-total closure. The Strait stays effectively closed.Trading Economics / Reuters

12. 2026-06-11Effectively closed

    Oil reversed its early-session spike: after Brent topped ~$96 and WTI neared $92 on Iran’s IRGC total-closure claim, crude turned lower in US-morning trade (WTI toward ~$89, Brent toward ~$92) after the US military said it had "completed" its latest strikes on Iran, reviving hopes negotiations could resume. The strait remains effectively closed (Iran claims total closure; US CENTCOM disputes it).CNBC / EIA STEO

13. 2026-06-11Effectively closed

    Oil reversed sharply lower in late US trade after President Trump abruptly canceled planned Thursday-night strikes on Iran and said the US had 'made a great settlement of the war,' subject to finalization, with a signing expected within days. Brent settled down about 3% near $90.38 and WTI down about 2% near $87.71, both extending losses after-hours (Brent ~$89.15, WTI ~$86.51). Tanker traffic through Hormuz had reportedly increased — about half of transiting ships using the Iran-designated route — easing acute supply fears, though Iran's IRGC claim of a total closure remained disputed by US CENTCOM and Iran did not confirm any deal.CNBC / Bloomberg

14. 2026-06-12Effectively closed

    Oil extended its slide in after-hours and early June 12 trade — WTI toward ~$86 (its lowest since April) and Brent toward ~$89 — after Trump said the US had 'made a great settlement of the war, subject to finalization,' with a signing that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz possibly this weekend in Europe. Hormuz tanker traffic was reported rising, with roughly half of transiting ships using the Iran-designated route, but Iran did not confirm any deal and the IRGC's total-closure claim — disputed by US CENTCOM — remained in place.NPR / CNBC

15. 2026-06-12Effectively closed

    Crude slid to a roughly two-month low (WTI near $84-86/bbl, Brent near $88-89) after President Trump said a 'great settlement' with Iran could be signed over the weekend in Europe and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Early that day US forces downed two Iranian drones near the strait after Iran fired on a transiting vessel. Iran did not confirm a final deal and the strait stayed effectively closed.RFE/RL / CNBC

16. 2026-06-12Effectively closed

    Oil fell to a two-month low (WTI ~$84.6, Brent ~$87.4, both down ~3-4%) as reports said the US and Iran could sign a peace deal as soon as Sunday in Europe. Iranian state media described a 14-point draft committing the US to lift oil sanctions and release about $24bn in frozen funds in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days and ending the naval blockade. Trump disputed that the leaked Iranian text reflected the agreed terms and Tehran did not confirm a final deal. Earlier that day US forces downed two Iranian drones near the strait after Iran fired on a transiting vessel; the IRGC's disputed total-closure claim remained in place.CNBC / RFE-RL

17. 2026-06-13Effectively closed

    Crude held near a two-month low into the weekend (WTI ~$84-85, Brent ~$87-88) as reports said a US-Iran memorandum — the 'Islamabad Declaration' — could be signed Sunday in Geneva by VP Vance and Iran's parliament speaker Qalibaf, with the deal committing Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Iran's foreign minister stressed the text was still under review and not finalized; the strait stayed effectively closed with no confirmed transit resumption.Reuters / Al Jazeera

18. 2026-06-13Effectively closed

    Crude held near a two-month low into the weekend (WTI ~$84.9, Brent ~$87.3 after Friday's settles of $84.88 and $87.33) as a senior Trump administration official put the odds of a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz at about 80% in the coming days. Iran's Mehr News circulated a 14-point draft committing Tehran to reopen the strait within 30 days and end the naval blockade in exchange for lifting oil sanctions and releasing frozen funds; Trump disputed that the leaked text reflected the agreed terms and Tehran did not confirm a final deal. The strait stayed effectively closed with no confirmed transit resumption.CNBC / Business Standard

19. 2026-06-13Effectively closed

    Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the Pakistan-mediated memorandum with the US would NOT be signed Sunday June 14 as Pakistan's PM had suggested, though it could be finalized 'in the coming days,' possibly via electronic signing, citing reservations about US 'instability.' Crude held its two-month low into the weekend (WTI ~$84.9, Brent ~$87.3) and the strait stayed effectively closed with shipping trackers reporting near-zero verified outbound commercial transits.Middle East Monitor / France 24

20. 2026-06-14Effectively closed

    Into the weekend (early Saturday UTC), crude held its roughly two-month low after Friday's settles (WTI $84.88, Brent $87.33) as markets awaited whether a US-Iran memorandum would be signed near the G7 in France (June 15-17). A senior Trump official kept the odds of an agreement in the coming days near 80%, but Tehran said the text was not final and would not be signed Sunday as Pakistan's PM had suggested. The Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively closed with shipping trackers reporting near-zero verified outbound commercial transits; analysts cautioned that even after a deal, mine-clearing, restarting idled Gulf fields and repairing damaged facilities would delay a full flow recovery.Schwab / CNBC / Reuters

• Brent crude ended Q1 2026 at $118/bbl after starting the year near $61 — the largest quarterly price increase on an inflation-adjusted basis in EIA data going back to 1988. It has since eased to roughly $93/bbl.

  EIA — Today in Energy2026-04-10

• The DOE has released about 17.5 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve since March under a ~172M-bbl exchange program, with repayment-in-kind plus an 18-24% premium due in 2026-2029.

  EIA — Today in Energy2026-05-21

• The World Bank projects global energy prices will rise about 24% in 2026 to their highest level since 2022, and warns up to 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity if the conflict is prolonged.

  World Bank — Commodity Markets Outlook2026-04-28

• The IEA characterized the Hormuz disruption as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with an initial loss of roughly 10 million barrels/day of supply.

  Wikipedia — Economic impact of the 2026 Iran war2026-04-21

• Brent fell below $94/bbl and WTI toward $91 on June 5, leaving Brent down roughly 20% from its 2026 peak near $118, as markets priced in possible progress in US-Iran talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; weaker Chinese crude imports added pressure.

  CNBC2026-06-05

• OPEC+ approved a fourth consecutive monthly output hike (+188,000 bpd for July) since the Hormuz closure, though delegates concede the blockade makes most of the added barrels physically undeliverable.

  The National (UAE)2026-06-07

• Crude ended the week up more than 4%, with Brent near $94, as renewed Iran-Israel strikes on June 7-8 revived the war premium and dimmed hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

  Fortune2026-06-07

• Oil jumped on June 8 — Brent about +4.9% toward $97.7/bbl and WTI about +3.4% toward $93.6 — after Iran and Israel traded direct strikes over the weekend, reversing a slide to ~$93 Brent on weak Chinese demand and threatening the diplomatic push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

  CNBC2026-06-08

• Oil pared its June 8 spike after Iran said it had ended its military operation against Israel, with Brent easing back toward $94/bbl from an intraday high above $97-98; the Strait of Hormuz blockade remained in force, keeping a structural war premium in prices.

  CNBC2026-06-08

• Analysts told CNBC that softer Chinese crude buying and inventory draws have so far kept oil under $100 despite the closed Strait of Hormuz and renewed Iran-Israel strikes — with Brent settling near $94 after an intraday spike to ~$97.7 — but warned the demand-side cushion is unlikely to hold if hostilities escalate.

  CNBC2026-06-08

• US CENTCOM confirmed an AH-64 Apache helicopter went down near the coast of Oman over the Strait of Hormuz on June 8; both crew were rescued and are in stable condition. Trump accused Iran of downing it and said the US 'must respond,' reviving escalation fears a day after a renewed Iran-Israel ceasefire.

  CNBC2026-06-09

• JPMorgan estimates visible Strait of Hormuz traffic remains at just ~15% of pre-war levels after three months of conflict, yet oil futures have stayed under $100 — attributed to soft Chinese demand, SPR releases and record US output.

  Axios2026-06-09

• Oil fell 3-4% on June 9 (WTI toward ~$87.6, Brent toward ~$91) after US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Strait of Hormuz ship traffic was 'rising very meaningfully' and the White House cited progress in Iran nuclear talks, before US strikes on Iran late that day revived supply-disruption fears; prices remain ~30% above pre-war levels.

  CNBC2026-06-09

• Crude rebounded in overnight trade after US CENTCOM struck Iranian air-defense and coastal-missile sites near Hormuz late June 9 and Iran said it retaliated against US Gulf bases, recovering from a Brent low near $91/WTI near $88 as the war premium returned; the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

  OilPrice.com2026-06-10

• Oil's overnight rebound faded on June 10 as Brent slid back toward ~$92/bbl (prior close ~$94.25) and WTI toward ~$88-91 in choppy trade, with investors appearing to shrug off the latest US-Iran exchange of strikes and refocusing on the US May CPI release and soft Chinese demand; China's May crude imports fell to ~7.8 Mbpd, the lowest in more than eight years.

  Investing.com2026-06-10

• US May CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year — the highest since April 2023 — with the energy index up 23.5% and gasoline up about 40%, making the Hormuz-driven oil shock the primary driver of the worst inflation reading in three years.

  BLS / CNBC2026-06-10

• China's May 2026 crude imports fell to roughly 7.8 million barrels per day — the lowest in more than eight years — as Hormuz-choked Gulf supply pushed Beijing to cut refinery runs and draw down strategic reserves rather than chase replacement barrels at elevated prices, a demand slump that has helped keep Brent under $100.

  Bloomberg2026-06-09

• US commercial crude inventories fell about 7.2 million barrels in the latest week per the EIA — a seventh consecutive weekly draw — as domestic refiners lean on stored crude to offset reduced seaborne imports, lending price support despite weak Chinese demand.

  EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report2026-06-10

• US crude rose 2.07% to settle at $90.03/bbl and Brent gained 1.8% to $93.10 on June 10 after the US completed a second day of retaliatory strikes on Iran and Trump vowed to attack 'very hard' again, reviving the war premium with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed.

  CNBC2026-06-10

• Rystad Energy estimated the shutdown of about 11.8 million barrels per day of output across six Gulf producers is the most severe oil supply disruption in modern history, with cumulative production losses reaching roughly 1 billion barrels.

  CNBC / Rystad Energy2026-06-10

• On June 11, Iran's IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels including oil tankers and claimed it struck two ships, while US CENTCOM said the strait remained open and traffic continued; Brent crude rose above $96/bbl and WTI toward $92 as the disputed closure revived the war premium.

  OilPrice.com2026-06-11

• S&P Global Ratings raised its WTI and Brent price assumptions, citing the ongoing effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent could average near $105/bbl in June and July if the chokepoint stays shut to most traffic.

  S&P Global Ratings / EIA STEO2026-06-11

• Oil reversed an early June 11 spike (Brent above $96, WTI near $92 on Iran’s IRGC total-closure claim) to trade lower (WTI toward ~$89, Brent toward ~$92) after the US military said it had completed its latest strikes on Iran and negotiation hopes revived; the EIA’s STEO still projects Brent could average ~$105/bbl in June-July if Hormuz stays shut to most traffic.

  CNBC / EIA STEO2026-06-11

• Oil reversed its June 11 war spike after Trump canceled planned strikes and claimed a war settlement 'subject to finalization'; US crude fell about 2% to settle near $87.71 and Brent about 3% to $90.38, with after-hours trade extending losses to roughly $86.51 WTI and $89.15 Brent as markets priced in possible de-escalation.

  CNBC2026-06-11

• Hormuz tanker traffic was reported rising on June 11, with roughly half of transiting ships using the Iran-designated route and the rest the southern Oman route; Frontline's CEO said traffic could rebound quickly from the current trickle of 5-10 ships per day if a credible deal is reached, with about 10% of the world's VLCCs stuck loaded in the Gulf.

  CNBC2026-06-11

• Oil sold off sharply after President Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran on June 11 and claimed a war settlement 'subject to finalization,' with a Hormuz-reopening deal possibly signed this weekend in Europe; US crude fell about 2.8% to roughly $87.56 and Brent about 3.5% to roughly $89.84, extending losses after-hours toward $86 WTI — the lowest since April.

  CNBC / NPR2026-06-11

• US May Producer Price Index rose 1.1% month-over-month and 6.5% year-over-year — the highest annual wholesale inflation since November 2022 — with about 80% of the gain from a 10.7% jump in final-demand energy and wholesale gasoline up 23.4%, confirming the Hormuz oil shock is flowing through to producer prices days before the June 16-17 FOMC meeting.

  BLS — Producer Price Index, May 20262026-06-11

• On June 12, 2026 crude extended losses to a roughly two-month low — WTI near $84-86/bbl and Brent near $88-89 — after President Trump said a 'great settlement' with Iran could be signed over the weekend in Europe and reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Iran did not confirm any final deal.

  Investing.com (Reuters)2026-06-12

• OPEC cut its 2026 world oil demand-growth forecast to about 970,000 bpd, down from roughly 1.17 million bpd — a second consecutive downward revision — citing slower Chinese demand and war-driven price pressure even as the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively closed.

  Investing.com (Reuters)2026-06-12

• Early June 12, 2026 US forces downed two Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian forces fired on a transiting vessel, underscoring that the chokepoint remained contested even as Washington touted an imminent settlement to reopen it.

  RFE/RL2026-06-12

• OPEC's June Monthly Oil Market Report cut its 2026 world oil demand-growth forecast to about 970,000 bpd, down from roughly 1.17 million bpd in May — a second consecutive downgrade — citing the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz closure and softer Chinese, Indian and Middle East demand. OPEC still sees a smaller hit than the EIA and IEA and projects a 1.73 million bpd rebound in 2027.

  Reuters / Investing.com2026-06-11

• Oil slid to a roughly two-month low on June 12 — WTI near $84.6/bbl and Brent near $87.4, both down about 3-4% — after President Trump said the US and Iran could sign a 'great settlement' as soon as the weekend in Europe that would lift oil sanctions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Iranian state media circulated a 14-point draft, but Trump disputed its terms and Tehran did not confirm a final deal, leaving the chokepoint effectively closed.

  CNBC2026-06-12

• US crude settled near $85.25/bbl and Brent near $88 on June 12, 2026 — both at roughly two-month lows, down about 4% on the day — after President Trump said a US-Iran settlement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be signed within days; Iran did not confirm a final deal.

  CNBC / Investing.com2026-06-12

• Oil closed the week at a roughly two-month low, with WTI settling near $84.33/bbl (-3.9%) and Brent near $86.98 (-3.8%) on June 12, 2026, as reports said a US-Iran memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be signed over the weekend near the G7 in Europe; Tehran said the text was not final and US forces downed two Iranian drones near the strait earlier that day.

  TradingKey (Reuters) / oilprice.com2026-06-12

• WTI crude settled at $84.88/bbl (down 3.2%) and Brent at $87.33 (down 3.4%) on June 12, 2026 — WTI's lowest close since January 25 and a roughly two-month low — as the US and Iran neared a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Trump administration official put the odds of an agreement in the coming days at about 80%.

  CNBC2026-06-12

• The AAA national average for regular gasoline eased to $4.108/gallon by June 12, 2026 — down nearly 20 cents over the week — as crude slid to a two-month low on hopes for a US-Iran settlement, though pump prices remain about 35% above the late-February pre-war level near $3.05.

  AAA Gas Prices2026-06-12

• Iran's Mehr News Agency reported a 14-point draft US-Iran agreement that would lift US oil sanctions and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days and ending the naval blockade; President Trump disputed that the leaked text reflected the agreed terms, and a memorandum (the 'Islamabad Declaration') was reported as possibly being signed near the G7 in Europe as soon as Sunday June 14.

  Business Standard (Reuters)2026-06-12

• On June 13, 2026 Iran's foreign ministry said the US-Iran memorandum would not be signed Sunday June 14 as Pakistan's PM had suggested — possibly remotely 'in the coming days' — keeping crude near a two-month low (WTI ~$84.9, Brent ~$87.3) but extending uncertainty over when the Strait of Hormuz would actually reopen.

  Middle East Monitor / France 242026-06-13

• Even if a US-Iran deal is signed, analysts cautioned oil flows would not normalize immediately: obstacles include clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz, restarting idled Gulf production fields, and repairing energy facilities damaged by drone and missile attacks.

  CNBC2026-06-12

• WTI crude finished the week at $84.88/bbl and Brent at $87.33 — both roughly two-month lows and down about 3-4% on Friday June 12 — leaving crude well below its 2026 peak near $118 Brent as traders priced in an ~80% chance of a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even with the chokepoint still effectively closed into the weekend.

  CNBC2026-06-13

• The AAA national average for regular gasoline eased to $4.086/gallon by June 13, 2026, extending a roughly 20-cent weekly decline as crude held a two-month low on US-Iran deal hopes, though pump prices remain about 34% above the late-February pre-war level near $3.05.

  AAA Gas Prices2026-06-13

• Heading into the weekend, equities sat near records and oil at its lowest since mid-April as markets bet on a US-Iran agreement to be signed near the G7 summit in France (June 15-17); the Fed's first FOMC under new chair Kevin Warsh (June 16-17) is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50-3.75% while dropping its easing bias after May CPI hit 4.2% and PPI 6.5%.

  Charles Schwab2026-06-13