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Strait of Hormuz
Blockade day 194Insurance: War-risk premium ~0.2-0.4% of hull value (from 0.125% pre-crisis), ~+$250k per large-tanker transit
The US naval blockade line near the Strait of Hormuz is in its seventh month (day ~194). Transits remain near a four-month low (~5-10/day vs ~140 pre-war) as the US-Iran tanker war holds at peak intensity. On Sept 11 drones — reportedly launched from Iraq — struck pump stations on Saudi Arabia's ~7M bpd East-West (Petroline) pipeline, forcing Riyadh to shut the strait-bypassing line, and Iran-aligned Houthis completed their Bab el-Mandeb takeover by seizing Perim Island. Iran's foreign ministry says Gulf Arab foreign ministers and an Iraqi envoy will meet in Oman on Monday Sept 14 to discuss safe Hormuz shipping routes — reportedly the first GCC-Iran top-diplomat meeting since the war began. US crude eased Friday on profit-taking and the Oman-diplomacy signal (WTI settled ~$100.05, Brent ~$104.61) but logged a ~9% weekly gain, the first weekly close above $100 since May; on-highway diesel hit an all-time record ~$6.06/gal, its first breach of $6.
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The strait stayed effectively shut (transponders dark, ~14 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war) as an interim reopening deal remained imminent but unsigned. Iran said it and Oman had agreed 'in principle' on coordinates for a new corridor — an Iran-controlled inbound route and an Oman-controlled outbound route — with a joint statement in final drafting; Trump said a deal could be announced this week and warned the strait 'is going to be open very soon or they are going to get hit very hard.' Iran tied reopening to the US lifting its naval blockade. Crude held near Brent ~$80 (oilprice.com $80.28) / WTI ~$75 ($75.16), firming intraday after the Houthis vowed to widen their blockade to Saudi tankers in the northern Red Sea following the Aug 5 Yanbu strike.CNBC / Bloomberg / Al Jazeera
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Crude firmed on the day — Brent back near $80-82 and WTI near $77-78 (oilprice.com Brent $80.28 / WTI $77.97; TradingView UKOIL ~$80.4 / USOIL ~$77.8) — even as Iran and Oman said they had agreed the coordinates of a new Hormuz shipping corridor and were negotiating a joint coordination center to monitor traffic, with the text in its "final stage." Prices rose partly on a Fars-published draft plan to bar US and Israeli vessels and on Houthi threats to widen their Red Sea blockade to Saudi tankers. Trump said a reopening deal could come this week and warned of "a harsh new attack" if the strait is not reopened soon; Iran tied reopening to the US lifting its naval blockade. No agreement was signed as of Aug 6 evening. Lloyds List put verified transits near ~7-8 commodity vessels/day (52 over Jul 27-Aug 2) vs ~140 pre-war.CNBC / Lloyds List Intelligence / Al Jazeera
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Crude held near its 2024 baseline into late Aug 7 (Brent ~$82, WTI ~$78) after the weak July US jobs report, as the Iran-Oman framework for new inbound/outbound Hormuz routes stayed agreed 'in principle' but unsigned and had not cleared Iran's parliament; CENTCOM said the southern Omani-waters route remains free and open. The strait stayed effectively shut (~8 crossings/day vs ~140 pre-war), with Iran tying full reopening to the US lifting its naval blockade.CNN / Bloomberg / TradingEconomics / CENTCOM
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Into the evening of blockade day 160, Iran's FM Abbas Araghchi said the Oman talks are 'approaching the final stages' but stressed this 'is not a sign of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,' which stays conditional on the US lifting its naval blockade and paying compensation — publicly tempering Trump's 'deal imminent' claim. The Strait stayed effectively shut (~8 crossings/day vs ~140 pre-war). With US markets closed, crude held Friday's near-2024-baseline settles (Brent ~$82 / WTI ~$78) as OPEC+'s final 2026 quota hike (+188k bpd) and the IEA's record ~3M bpd surplus warning capped the war premium.Fortune / The Tribune (India) / TradingEconomics
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Into the evening of blockade day 161 the Strait stayed effectively shut (~8 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war). Iran hardened its terms: FM Araghchi said Iran and Oman are 'very close' on a navigation framework but reopening still requires the US to lift its naval blockade, end sanctions and pay compensation, while the IRGC said the waterway is 'subject to' Iran's own mechanism and 'has nothing to do with' the Oman channel — signaling the unsigned framework may be stalling. With US markets closed for the weekend, crude held near its 2024 baseline (Brent ~$83.5 / WTI ~$78.3) as OPEC+'s +188k bpd September hike and the IEA's large 2026 surplus outlook capped the war premium.CNN / Fortune / Argus / oilprice.com
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Into blockade day 162 the Strait stayed largely shut (~8 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war) with the US naval blockade ongoing. Iran-Oman navigation talks continued at deputy-FM level but produced no signed framework; Tehran hardened its terms (end US attacks, lift the blockade and sanctions, unfreeze assets, pay war-damage compensation). Trump said Washington is 'low-keying' the talks and stressing economic pressure. Crude firmed a third straight session — Brent mid-$80s, WTI ~$80 (up ~2-3%) — as the reopening stalled.CNBC / Al Jazeera / CNN
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Into blockade day 163 the strait stayed largely shut (~8 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war) with the US naval blockade ongoing. Reopening talks stayed stalled through the Aug. 11 session: FM Araghchi said Iran is not in direct talks with Washington and tied any reopening to an end to the war, a US troop withdrawal and compensation, while Trump claimed '100% control' of the strait and turned the reparations demand back on Tehran. Fresh tanker incidents were reported near the strait. Crude held a four-day gain — Brent ~$87.9, WTI ~$82 — keeping a geopolitical risk premium one day before the July CPI print.CNBC / Semafor / Al Jazeera
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Into blockade day 164 the strait stayed largely shut (~8 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war) with the US naval blockade ongoing. Reopening talks remained stalled: Iran's FM Araghchi reiterated Tehran is not in direct US talks and tied reopening to ending the war, a US troop withdrawal and compensation, while Trump claimed '100% control' and turned the reparations demand back on Iran. Crude held a four-day gain — Brent ~$88-89, WTI ~$82 — sustaining a geopolitical premium as markets awaited the 8:30 a.m. ET July CPI print.CNBC / Fortune / Trading Economics
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Into blockade day 165-166 the strait stayed largely shut (~8 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war) under the ongoing US naval blockade. Trump claimed 'total control' of Hormuz via an 'infallible' blockade and rejected Iran's reparations demand as the 60-day US-Iran MoU neared its Aug 16 expiry; FM Araghchi said the Iran-Oman management track is 'approaching final stages' but is not a reopening. Crude ground higher a fifth-to-sixth straight session (Brent ~$89, WTI ~$83-84) as an IEA report flagged a deepening 2026 deficit and a sanctioned-tanker spill fouled Oman's coast, even as OPEC+ quota hikes capped gains and the in-line July CPI (3.4%) landed without a jolt.CNBC / NBC News / Al Jazeera
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Into blockade day ~166 the strait stayed largely shut (~8 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war). Iran's military spokesman Zolfaghari called US claims of normal transit 'lies and fabrications,' insisting no ship crosses without Iranian permission, while FM Araghchi warned Washington is relying on 'fake intelligence'; Kpler put the 5-day transit average near three-month lows. Crude slid more than 2% (Brent settling ~$87.1, WTI ~$81.3) on demand fears even with the outage as the IEA flagged the deepest quarterly deficit since 2021; the S&P 500 closed at a record. The 60-day US-Iran MoU neared its ~Aug 16 lapse with no signed reopening framework.CNBC / Euronews / IEA
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Into blockade day ~167 the strait stayed largely shut (~8 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war) under the ongoing US naval blockade. The UAE accused Iran of a fresh drone attack on two ADNOC tankers (Navig8 Messi, Tarif) transiting Hormuz — minor damage, no casualties — as Washington and Tehran moved to extend their Oman-brokered 60-day ceasefire ahead of its ~Aug 16-17 lapse. Crude rebounded on the day: Brent settled ~$88.5 and WTI ~$82.4 (both +>5% on the week) after Treasury Secretary Bessent threatened Iran's 'economic isolation,' even as OPEC cut its 2026 demand-growth forecast for a fourth straight month. Kpler held transit near three-month lows.CNBC / Al Jazeera / Seatrade
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Into blockade day ~168 the strait stayed largely shut (~8-11 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war, near 3-month lows per Lloyd's List). Iran rebuffed Trump's claim of 'total control': Deputy FM Gharibabadi said Hormuz 'will remain Iranian' and FM Araghchi denied any US-Iran negotiations, contradicting Trump. Pakistani mediators reported consent 'in principle' to extend the ~Aug 16-17-expiring ceasefire, though no terms were set. Defense Secretary Hegseth said the naval blockade can run 'indefinitely' by rotating ships, and UKMTO reported a bulk carrier hit by a projectile in the strait. Brent settled ~$88.52 and WTI ~$82.40 Friday (both +>5% on the week).CNBC / NBC News / Lloyd's List
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Into blockade day ~169 the strait stayed largely shut (~8-13 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war, near three-month lows) as the June-brokered 60-day US-Iran ceasefire neared its Aug. 17 lapse without a signed extension — Pakistani mediators cited consent 'in principle' while a senior Iranian source said there was 'nothing to extend.' Over the weekend President Trump said he would 'pretty soon' declare Hormuz US territory and VP Vance called keeping oil cheap 'goal number one' of the war; Treasury's Bessent vowed 'unprecedented' economic pressure next week and Defense chief Hegseth said the naval blockade can run 'indefinitely.' Crude held its weekly gain (Brent ~$88.5, WTI ~$82.4 Friday settles).CNBC / Al Jazeera / NBC News
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Blockade day ~170: the June-brokered 60-day US-Iran ceasefire/MOU lapsed at its Aug 17 deadline with no signed extension — Trump said talks continue but told Tehran the truce is 'no longer in effect,' threatened to 'bomb' Oman if it 'gets in the way' of a Hormuz deal, and Iran kept the strait closed. Transits collapsed to a near standstill (~3 vessels crossed Sunday vs ~140 pre-war); Maersk kept all Hormuz transits suspended and halted Suez calls, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, and the IEA flagged reopening as increasingly pressing as stockpiles draw down. Crude held its weekly gain into Monday (Brent ~$89, WTI ~$82) as Treasury readied 'unprecedented' economic-isolation measures for the week of Aug 18.CNBC / gCaptain / The Hill
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Blockade past its ~5.5-month mark: the 60-day US-Iran MOU lapsed Aug 17 and Trump ruled out reviving it, said no talks were underway, threatened to 'bomb' Oman over a reported Iran-Oman transit deal and demanded Iran's surrender. Transit traffic collapsed further — about five commodity vessels crossed Saturday and none Sunday vs 31 the prior weekend — and a vessel exiting the strait was struck by an unknown projectile early Aug 18, killing one crew member (UKMTO). Crude held its war premium — Brent ~$91, WTI ~$85 — with AAA's national gas average near $4.07/gal.Eastern Herald / Al Jazeera / UKMTO
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Into blockade day ~172 the strait stayed effectively shut (~5 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war). After the 60-day US-Iran MOU lapsed Aug 17 with no revival, Iran and Oman kept finalizing an arrangement to manage Hormuz traffic that leaves the US out — over 80% of two-week traffic has shifted to the UN-authorized Omani route, and Kpler says Iran has partially lost the ability to charge tolls. Trump ruled out reviving the MOU and threatened to bomb Oman. Crude held its premium (Brent ~$91, WTI ~$85); AAA's national pump average was ~$4.065/gal.EIA / Haaretz / Kpler / AAA
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Into blockade day ~174 the strait stayed effectively shut (~5 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war). Treasury Sec. Bessent unveiled a blockade-plus-'toughest-sanctions-in-history' campaign to pressure Tehran while saying a large-scale kinetic restart is now unlikely; the US redesignated Hezbollah an Iranian proxy, and the UAE kept its halt on all trade with Iran. Crude held its war premium — Brent ~$93 (intraday to ~$95), WTI ~$84-86 — with AAA's national gas average ~$4.10/gal.CNBC / Al Jazeera / AAA
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Into blockade day ~174 the strait stayed effectively shut (~3-5 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war; just 3 crossed one recent day). Treasury Sec. Bessent teased a Monday (Aug 24) rollout of 'the toughest sanctions in history' as a 'one-two punch' with the blockade and pressed China and allies to isolate Tehran; VP Vance called economic pressure the war's 'new phase.' Iran's FM Araghchi denied any talks and dismissed the campaign as 'economic terrorism,' while President Pezeshkian argued Iran should end the war 'from a position of strength.' Crude held its premium — Brent ~$94 (intraday ~$95), WTI ~$86 — with AAA's national gas average ~$4.109/gal.CNBC / Al Jazeera / AAA
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Into blockade day ~175 the strait stayed effectively shut (~3-5 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war). Iran's armed forces vowed 'crushing, punishing and devastating' responses and FM spokesman Baghaei called the sanctions 'classic colonialism'; Treasury Sec. Bessent confirmed a Monday (Aug 24) press conference to unveil the 'toughest sanctions in history' and 'collapse this regime.' Crude held its war premium — Brent ~$94, WTI ~$87 — with AAA's national gas average ~$4.102/gal.CNBC / NBC News / AAA
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Into blockade day ~176 the strait stayed effectively shut (~3-5 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war), with more than 80% of remaining traffic on the UN-authorized Omani route. Ahead of Treasury Sec. Bessent's Monday (Aug 24) 'toughest sanctions in history' presser, China's Commerce Ministry ordered its firms to defy US measures (invoking a 2021 blocking statute) and Iran's new SNSC chief Mohsen Rezaei threatened to target Gulf neighbors who join the US 'economic war.' With US markets closed, crude held Friday's close (Brent ~$93.8, WTI ~$86.4); AAA's national gas average was ~$4.10/gal.CNBC / gCaptain / AAA
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Into blockade day 177 the strait stayed effectively shut (~3-5 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war, most remaining traffic on the UN-authorized Omani route). Treasury Sec. Bessent launched 'Operation Economic Outcast' at a 2 p.m. ET presser — secondary sanctions across shipping, oil, gold, aviation and digital assets plus dozens of designations including Chinese nationals — but offered a 'cure period' before penalties bite. Oil fell rather than spiked: Brent settled ~$92.1 and WTI ~$84.9 (both about -2.5%) as traders judged the package priced in and thin on enforcement detail. Iran dismissed it as 'desperate,' threatened Hormuz ship seizures and approved a parliamentary transit levy; China ordered firms to defy the measures. AAA's national gas average held ~$4.10/gal.CNBC / NBC News / gCaptain / AAA
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Into blockade day 178 the strait stayed effectively shut (~3-6 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war, most remaining traffic on the UN-authorized Omani route). Crude fell a second straight day Tuesday — WTI near ~$82 and Brent near ~$89 (down ~3%, lowest since mid-August) — after the State Department signaled it would return evacuated diplomats to Middle East embassies, reinforcing the read that 'Operation Economic Outcast' is economic pressure rather than a prelude to renewed strikes. Iran's Rezaei vowed 'seismic' retaliation and threatened to halt all Gulf oil exports while Oman's FM met Araghchi in Tehran; tankers were still being struck near Hormuz. AAA's national gas average eased to ~$4.097/gal.CNBC / TechTimes / ZeroHedge / AAA
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Into blockade day 179 the strait stayed effectively shut (~4 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war, most remaining traffic on the UN-authorized Omani route). Crude fell a third straight session — Brent ~$86.2 (-2.6%) and WTI ~$80.3 (-2.5%), a ~6-7% three-day slide — after Iran's deputy FM Gharibabadi said Iran and Oman agreed a temporary joint Hormuz transit route (inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Iranian and Omani waters) plus a 30-60-day mine-clearing project, while stressing the strait 'remains closed' until Washington honors its lapsed June 17 MOU. Trump told Al Jazeera he is 'not in a hurry' for Iran to return to talks; the US has begun returning staff to some Mideast posts. AAA national gas held ~$4.101/gal.Al Jazeera / CNBC / Reuters / AAA
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Into blockade day 180 the strait stayed effectively shut (~3-4 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war, most remaining traffic on the UN-authorized Omani route). Crude settled a fourth straight session lower — Brent near $86.9 and WTI near $81.4, capping a weekly drop of more than 7% — as US sanctions on Iran landed softer than feared (Treasury's package spared Iran's trading partners from immediate penalties) and Iran and Oman advanced a phased 'temporary joint maritime corridor,' though some reporting said the revenue-sharing terms were not yet finalized. Qatar's PM traveled to Tehran to relaunch mediation while Trump said he is 'not in a hurry' for talks. AAA national gas held ~$4.10/gal.Reuters / Bloomberg / Trading Economics / AAA
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Into blockade day 181 the strait stayed effectively shut to commercial traffic (~3-4 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war, most remaining flow on the UN-authorized Omani route). Crude closed out its worst week in months — Brent settled near $88 (down ~5.5% on the week), WTI near $82.5 — as traders judged oil is still moving through Hormuz and recast the US-Iran standoff as a sanctions fight, with OPEC and the IEA both trimming 2026 demand outlooks. CENTCOM's Adm. Brad Cooper said US forces cleared all Iranian-laid mines from recognized Hormuz lanes (~1,500 vessels / ~750M barrels escorted), while Iran insists the strait is not 'open' until the US lifts its blockade. Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole keynote lifted September rate-hike bets and the 2-year yield. AAA national gas held ~$4.09/gal.Reuters / CNBC / Investing.com / CENTCOM / AAA
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Into blockade day 182 (weekend; US markets closed after Friday Aug 28) the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively shut to routine commercial traffic (~3-4 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war), with most residual flow on the UN-authorized Omani corridor. Crude held near Friday's close — Brent ~$88, WTI ~$83 — after its worst week in months on OPEC/IEA 2026 demand cuts. President Pezeshkian said Iran will reopen the strait only if the US lifts its blockade and sanctions and honors the June MoU, while the IRGC Navy maintains it holds 'complete and decisive control.' Fresh data showed the US Navy blockade cut Iran's August crude loadings to ~260,000 bpd, down ~80% year-on-year. Separately, Trump announced a deal claiming US majority control of ~65B barrels of Venezuelan reserves, which he said would lower gasoline prices. AAA national gas held ~$4.09/gal.Reuters / CNBC / Al Jazeera / CENTCOM / AAA
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Into blockade day 183 (Sunday evening; US markets closed) the Strait of Hormuz stayed effectively shut to routine commercial traffic (~3-4 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war), most residual flow on the UN-authorized Omani corridor. CENTCOM said its enforcement had redirected 82 commercial vessels, disabled three and boarded two as of Aug 28, with Iran's August crude loadings down to ~260,000 bpd (~80% below a year earlier). Crude held Friday's close (Brent ~$88.3 / WTI ~$83.5) after its worst week in months on OPEC/IEA 2026 demand-outlook cuts. Supreme Leader Khamenei urged Iranians to cut reliance on the US dollar and build a 'resistance economy'; President Pezeshkian tied any reopening to the US lifting its blockade and sanctions. AAA national gas held ~$4.08/gal.Reuters / CNBC / CENTCOM / UANI / AAA
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Blockade day 184: the Strait stayed effectively shut to routine traffic (~3-4 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war). The Aug 30 US strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island drew an Iranian retaliation overnight against US-linked bases in Jordan and a drone over the UAE, mostly intercepted with no confirmed casualties; Trump threatened to hit Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal but no strike landed and Iran said loading continues. Crude settled sharply higher - Brent $90.69 (+2.9%) and WTI $85.54 (+2.6%) - as the war-risk premium returned; ~6-8M bbl/day still moves through Hormuz.CNBC / Bloomberg / Trading Economics
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Blockade day 187 (Tuesday; US markets open, Labor Day is Sept 7): the Strait stayed effectively shut to routine traffic (~3-4 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war). Overnight two outbound supertankers carrying Saudi crude - the Bahri-run Sidr and the Sinokor-operated VLCC Senegal Prosperity, each loaded ~2M bbl at Juaymah - were struck near-simultaneously by unknown projectiles near Khasab, Oman; all crew reported safe. Iran said a separate tanker 'trying to transit illegally' caught fire after hitting two naval mines. Crude settled higher a second straight session - Brent ~$91.28 (+0.9%) / WTI ~$86.57 (+0.9%) - as the war-risk premium built on the Aug 30 Larak Island strike and Iran's intercepted retaliation on Jordan/UAE bases; the 10-year Treasury yield hit ~4.78% (30-year ~5.28%). US stocks closed lower (S&P 500 -0.3% to 7,686.14; Dow -374.09 to 53,185.90; Nasdaq -0.1% to 26,370.89) with CME FedWatch holding ~66-68% odds of a September Fed hike. Trump kept threatening Iran's Kharg Island oil hub but no strike landed and Iran said loading continues. AAA national gas ~$4.095/gal.Bloomberg / CNBC / CBC / Oman Observer / Trading Economics / AAA
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Blockade day ~188 (Wednesday evening): the Strait stayed effectively shut to routine traffic (~3-4 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war). After two supertankers were hit, the US struck Iranian government tankers for the first time under a new "tanker-for-tanker" retaliation policy while completing a fresh wave on Iran’s southern Hormuz coast (Sirik, Konarak, Chabahar, Bandar Abbas, Qeshm); Iran launched a "decisive operation" of missiles and drones at US bases in Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain (US reports no casualties). Brent held near $95/bbl — a ~six-week high — and WTI near $91. Treasury Sec. Bessent said ~17M barrels transited Hormuz Monday. AAA national gas ~$4.12/gal.Axios / NPR / Fortune / AAA
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Blockade day ~190 (Thursday): the Strait stayed effectively shut to routine traffic (~4-6 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war). Overnight Sept 2 the US struck two Iranian government tankers in their engine rooms under a new 'tanker-for-tanker' policy, and Iran widened its Hormuz shipping blacklist to 56 vessels. Crude held near six-week highs — Brent above $95/bbl and WTI near $92-93 — as the US-Iran strike exchange kept a war-risk premium in the market. AAA national gas held ~$4.12/gal.Axios / OilPrice.com / AAA / Trading Economics
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Blockade day ~186 (Friday midday, after the US August jobs report): the Strait stayed effectively shut to routine traffic (~4-8 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war), though ~8M bbl/day of crude still moved through. Brent held near $95.23/bbl and WTI near $92-93 — roughly six-week highs and ~20% above a month ago — keeping the war-risk premium bid after the Sept 1-2 exchange (US strikes on ~100 IRGC Hormuz-coast targets and two Iranian government tankers; Iranian missile/drone salvos on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq). A hot August payrolls print (+162,000; unemployment 4.1%) revived Fed-hike odds. AAA national gas rose to ~$4.17/gal, up about $1 in a month. OPEC+ completed its 2026 supply-cut rollback and next meets Sept 6.Trading Economics / CNBC / AAA
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Blockade day ~187 (Sat, Sept 5): US Central Command confirmed strikes on three Iranian oil tankers — disabling vessels off Kharg Island (Iran's main export terminal) and near Jask, and destroying one in the Gulf of Oman — in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks on a US aircraft carrier and destroyer. Crude rose ~3% on the day and Brent ended up ~9% on the week near $96/bbl (WTI ~$91). AAA national gas held ~$4.146/gal; OPEC+ meets Sept 6 after completing its 2026 supply-cut rollback.NBC News / CNBC / Trading Economics
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Blockade day 188 (Sun, Sept 6 evening): OPEC+'s eight-nation core met online and KEPT October output UNCHANGED — the first pause after monthly hikes that completed the 1.65M bpd rollback of 2023 voluntary cuts with September's final +188k bpd tranche; ~2M bpd of older cuts stay in place, next meeting Oct 4. Iran's Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran will declare a 'prohibited zone' near the Strait 'in the coming days' after CENTCOM's Sept 5 strikes on three Iranian tankers; the IRGC claimed fresh attacks on US warships. The Strait stayed effectively shut (~5 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war); Brent held near $96 (+~9% on the week) and WTI ~$91.5. AAA gas ~$4.15/gal; on-highway diesel a record ~$5.85.Reuters / CNBC / The National / AAA
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Blockade day 189 (Labor Day Monday, US cash markets closed): the Strait stayed effectively shut (~5-6 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war), a four-month low. Brent extended its rally toward $97 in electronic trade (~$97.4 intraday, +~1.2%; Fri settle $96.28), the highest since July, and WTI topped $92 (~$92.25) after CENTCOM's Sept 5 strikes on three Iranian tankers (Kharg Island, Jask, Gulf of Oman). Iran's SNSC secretary Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran will within days declare a 'restricted zone' beyond Hormuz and sign an Iran-Oman shipping corridor, sanction-listing ships that transit without coordinating with Iran. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US will maintain its blockade; OPEC+ (Sept 6) kept October output unchanged. AAA national gas ~$4.15/gal; on-highway diesel a record ~$5.90/gal.Trading Economics / Bloomberg / The National / AAA
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Blockade day 190 (Tuesday evening; US cash markets reopened after Labor Day): the Strait stayed effectively shut (~5-6 transits/day vs ~140 pre-war). Brent jumped ~1.7% to about $98.61 (intraday high $99.46, its highest since July 24) and WTI rose near $92.37 — about 40% above pre-war and testing $100 — after a Houthi missile-and-drone barrage ignited fires at Saudi Aramco energy sites (Abha, Jazan, Najran) and King Khalid Air Base, wounding 73 and pausing some southern-refinery operations, stacked on the US-Iran tanker war and Iran's threatened Hormuz 'restricted zone.' Goldman raised its Dec-2026 Brent/WTI forecasts +$5 to $85/$80. OPEC+ (Sept 6) kept October output unchanged. AAA national gas ~$4.15/gal; on-highway diesel a record ~$5.90/gal.CNBC / NBC News / Semafor / AAA
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Blockade day 191 (Wed, Sept 9): the US-Iran tanker war escalated sharply. After CENTCOM destroyed five Iranian crude tankers on Sept 8, Iran on Sept 9 fired 20 ballistic missiles at the US-used Muwaffaq Salti (Azraq) air base in Jordan — Jordan said it intercepted 18 of 20 with no casualties — and attacked roughly 10 ships near Hormuz, the biggest wave of strikes on shipping since the war began. Brent settled above $100/bbl (~$100.7) for the first time since July and WTI near $96; the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest since 2023. AAA gas ~$4.22/gal; on-highway diesel a record ~$5.90/gal.CNBC / Al Jazeera / Fortune
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Blockade day 192 (Thu, Sept 10): the tanker war hit its most intense level yet. US crude settled above $100 for the first time since 2024 — WTI ~$102.5 (up ~6.7%) and Brent ~$108 — after the biggest wave of tanker strikes since the war began left the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. US stocks fell a third straight day (Dow -405 to 52,380.66) and the 10-year Treasury yield touched ~4.92%, its highest since 2023, as $100 oil revived inflation fears; Fed rate-hike odds for next week rose to ~70% ahead of the Sept 11 CPI. AAA gas ~$4.28/gal; on-highway diesel a record ~$5.90/gal.TheStreet / CNBC / Bloomberg
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Blockade day 193 (Fri, Sept 11): US crude eased Friday on profit-taking and signals of Iran–Oman Hormuz diplomacy — WTI settled ~$100.05 (-2.4%) and Brent ~$104.61 (-2.8%) — but both posted ~9% weekly gains, the first weekly close above $100 since May. Drones reportedly launched from Iraq struck pump stations on Saudi Arabia's ~7M bpd East-West (Petroline) crude pipeline, forcing Riyadh to shut the strait-bypassing line; Iran-aligned Houthis completed their Bab el-Mandeb takeover by seizing Perim Island. AAA gas ~$4.30/gal; on-highway diesel a record ~$6.06/gal, the first breach of $6.CNBC / Bloomberg / CNN / AAA
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Blockade day 194 (Sat, Sept 12; US markets closed). The Strait stays effectively shut, ~10 commodity vessels/day vs ~140 pre-war. Ahead of Monday's GCC-Iran talks in Oman on safe Hormuz routes, Saudi Arabia kept its ~7M bpd East-West (Petroline) pipeline shut after drones reportedly from Iraq hit pump stations; Iraq confirmed the drones came from its soil and opened a probe. Crude held Friday's settles (Brent ~$104.61, WTI ~$100.05) after a ~9% weekly gain; AAA regular gas ~$4.31/gal, on-highway diesel a record $6.06/gal.Middle East Eye / The Business Standard / NBC News / AAA
US gas prices
National average- Crude oil cost$2.310($1.62)
- Refining$0.780($0.40)
- Distribution & marketing$0.420($0.15)
- Federal excise tax$0.184($0.18)
- Average state tax$0.350($0.35)
- Retail margin$0.247($0.12)
Source: AAA Gas Prices
At the pump & beyond
How the oil shock is reaching households at the pump and beyond. Baselines are late-February 2026; current prices have eased from the late-April/early-May peak as SPR barrels reach the market.
- Regular gasoline$3.05$4.31+41.3%
- Diesel$3.80$6.06+59.5%
- Jet fuel (kerosene)$2.45$4.95+102.0%
- Heating oil$3.20$4.90+53.1%
Food & grocery impact
| Commodity | Pre-war | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Wheat /bushel · CBOT December SRW wheat near ~$7.39/bu and Dec HRW ~$8.14/bu (Sept 11), easing off a 3-year intraday high (~$8.58 on Sept 2) but well above pre-war on Black Sea export-disruption fears. | $5.62 | $7.39 | +31.5% |
Corn /bushel · CBOT corn near ~$5.12/bu (Sept 11) after a 3-year high ~$5.21 earlier in the month on a StoneX yield downgrade and 14-year-low world ending stocks; well above pre-war. | $4.31 | $5.12 | +18.8% |
Soybeans /bushel · CBOT soybeans near ~$13.00/bu (Sept 11), down ~1.3% Friday but near the highest since Dec 2023 on Chinese buying (~1M MT this week); above pre-war. | $10.12 | $13.00 | +28.5% |
Rice /cwt · Down from ten-month highs; ample global inventories led by record Indian output offset Gulf-route disruption. | $15.20 | $12.65 | -16.8% |
Cooking oil /gallon · Vegetable-oil index elevated on biofuel demand and higher freight on key routes. | $3.49 | $5.40 | +54.7% |
Coffee /lb · ICE arabica eased to ~$2.95/lb by the Sept 4 close, its lowest since early August on record Brazil harvest expectations, but still well above pre-war. | $1.82 | $2.95 | +62.1% |
Key producers
World's largest producer at a record ~13.5 Mbpd. DOE has tapped the SPR (down to ~384M bbl from 411M at end-2025) via a ~172M-bbl exchange to cushion summer pump prices; domestic output unaffected but refiners face higher input costs.
Key OPEC swing producer with ~2.5 Mbpd spare capacity; Saudi tankers have moved back through Hormuz since the June 17 reopening. For August, Aramco CUT its Arab Light OSP to Asia to ~$1.50 below Oman/Dubai — the biggest monthly cut in over two decades — amid reportedly zero Sinopec Saudi purchases for a second month, a market-share/demand-weakness signal.
Largely unaffected and benefiting from higher prices; expanding flows to China and India.
Re-entered global markets under the US Treasury's 60-day waiver (effective June 22) — shipping 30M-plus barrels to Asia and cutting China cargo prices — until July 7, when the US REVOKED the waiver after tanker strikes near Hormuz, barring new Iranian oil sales with a 10-day wind-down into blocked accounts and restoring sanctions pressure. Full recovery also pends repairs at the Kharg Island terminal; economy still forecast to contract ~10%.
Southern (Basra) output was down more than 70% during the blockade; faces the longest recovery as the strait reopens, with deeper shut-in fields that analysts say could take up to a year to return to normal output.
Key facts
Sept 12, 2026: Iran's foreign ministry said Gulf Arab foreign ministers and an Iraqi envoy will meet in Oman on Monday, Sept 14, to discuss safe Strait of Hormuz shipping routes — reportedly the first GCC-Iran top-diplomat meeting since the war began. Both crude benchmarks logged their first weekly close above $100 since May (WTI settled $100.05 Fri, +9.4% on the week; Brent $104.61, +8.7%); on-highway diesel hit an all-time record $6.06/gal, its first breach of $6, and AAA regular gas ~$4.29.
Middle East Eye / CNBC / NBC News / AAA2026-09-12
Sept 11, 2026: on-highway diesel hit an all-time record ~$6.06/gal — its first breach of $6 and a third record in a week (California ~$7.98) — as triple-digit crude passed through to distillate. US crude eased Friday on profit-taking and Iran–Oman Hormuz-diplomacy signals (WTI settled ~$100.05, Brent ~$104.61) but posted a ~9% weekly gain, the first weekly close above $100 since May; drones reportedly from Iraq shut Saudi Arabia's Hormuz-bypassing East-West pipeline. The hot August CPI (3.4% y/y) kept Fed-hike odds near 90% for the Sept 15-16 FOMC.
AAA / GasBuddy / CNBC / Bloomberg2026-09-11
Sept 10, 2026: US crude settled above $100/barrel for the first time since 2024 — WTI ~$102.5 (up ~6.7%) and Brent ~$108 — after the biggest wave of tanker strikes since the US-Iran war began left the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed; the 10-year Treasury yield hit ~4.92%, its highest since 2023, and oil is up more than 8% in September.
TheStreet / CNBC2026-09-10
Sept 9, 2026: Brent crude settled above $100/barrel for the first time since July (WTI near $96) after the US destroyed five Iranian tankers on Sept 8 and Iran retaliated Sept 9 against a US-used base in Jordan and ships near Hormuz; oil is up more than 8% month-to-date.
Fortune / CNBC2026-09-09
Sept 9, 2026: Goldman Sachs warned Brent could exceed $120 in 2027 if Gulf output stays roughly 4M bpd below pre-war levels, after lifting its December Brent/WTI forecasts by $5 to $85/$80.
Reuters via Yahoo Finance2026-09-09
Sept 8-9, 2026: US Central Command said it destroyed five Iranian crude tankers after the IRGC attempted to strike a US Navy warship, the sharpest escalation of the months-long Hormuz tanker war. Brent climbed toward $100 (~$99.4) and WTI to ~$94.6 — about 40% above pre-war levels — with the Strait effectively shut and Iran threatening a ‘prohibited zone.’ Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end Brent/WTI forecasts by $5 to $85/$80.
CNBC / UPI / NBC News2026-09-09
Sept 8, 2026: Brent crude jumped ~1.7% to about $98.61 (intraday high $99.46, its highest since July 24) and WTI rose near $92.37 after Iran-aligned Houthi forces struck Saudi Aramco energy and economic sites in Abha, Jazan and Najran and King Khalid Air Base with dozens of drones and ballistic missiles, wounding 73 and forcing temporary shutdowns at several southern facilities. Oil is up more than 8% in September.
CNBC / NBC News / World Oil2026-09-08
Sept 7, 2026: Goldman Sachs raised its December-2026 Brent and WTI forecasts by $5 to $85 and $80/bbl (2027 to $80 and $75) on prolonged Middle East shipping disruption, warning Brent could exceed $120 in 2027 if Gulf crude output remains ~4M bpd below pre-war levels.
OilPrice.com / Reuters2026-09-07
Sept 8, 2026 (Tuesday reopen after Labor Day): Brent held near six-week highs around $97/bbl and WTI near $92 — roughly 40% above pre-war and testing $100 — as the US-Iran tanker war and Iran's threatened Hormuz 'restricted zone' kept the war premium bid. OPEC+ (Sept 6) kept October output unchanged. AAA national gas ~$4.15/gal; on-highway diesel a record ~$5.90/gal.
Al Jazeera / Trading Economics / AAA2026-09-08
Sept 7, 2026 (Labor Day, evening): Brent extended its rally toward $97/bbl (~$97.4 intraday, +~1.2%, highest since July) and WTI topped $92 (~$92.25) as the US-Iran tanker war and Iran's threatened Hormuz 'restricted zone' rebuilt the war premium; US cash markets were closed, but oil traded electronically. AAA national gas held ~$4.15/gal and on-highway diesel a record ~$5.90/gal.
Trading Economics / Bloomberg2026-09-07
Sept 6, 2026: OPEC+ paused output hikes for October, holding ~31.1M bpd after completing the 2023 1.65M bpd cut rollback — its first pause since the phased increases began — citing Iran-war disruption to ~20% of global crude via Hormuz. Crude held near six-week highs (Brent ~$96, WTI ~$91.5) after CENTCOM's Sept 5 strikes on three Iranian tankers; AAA gas ~$4.15/gal, on-highway diesel a record ~$5.85.
CNBC / Reuters / AAA2026-09-06
Sept 6, 2026: OPEC+ confirmed it will keep October crude output unchanged — its first pause after six straight monthly increases — after completing the 1.65M bpd rollback of 2023 voluntary cuts via September's +188k bpd tranche; roughly 2M bpd of older 2022 cuts remain in place. Delegates noted the Iran war and Hormuz closure keep actual production well below target.
Reuters / The National2026-09-06
Sept 6, 2026: OPEC+'s seven core members met virtually, widely expected to pause further Q4 output hikes after completing the 1.65M bpd rollback of 2023 voluntary cuts; the +188k bpd September tranche is already live. Brent held ~$96/bbl and WTI ~$91 (up ~9% on the week) after the US struck three Iranian tankers on Sept 5; AAA national gas held ~$4.15/gal, on-highway diesel at a record ~$5.85/gal.
Reuters / CNBC / AAA2026-09-06
Sept 5, 2026: US Central Command confirmed strikes on three Iranian oil tankers (off Kharg Island, near Jask, and in the Gulf of Oman), sending crude up ~3% on the day; Brent ended up nearly 9% on the week near $96/bbl and WTI near $91. Hormuz oil transit is about 5M bbl/day, down from over 20M pre-war; AAA national gas held ~$4.146/gal with on-highway diesel at a record ~$5.85/gal.
NBC News / Trading Economics / AAA2026-09-05
Sept 4, 2026: US on-highway diesel hit an all-time record $5.85/gal, surpassing the prior $5.81 peak from June 2022, while AAA’s national gasoline average reached about $4.15-$4.17 — the first time gas has topped $4 on Labor Day — as the Hormuz war premium passed through to the pump.
CBS News / AAA2026-09-04
Sept 4, 2026: Maersk, the world’s largest tanker operator, said it expects Strait of Hormuz disruption to persist with no return to normal by year-end; commodity transits fell to about six vessels Wednesday from 11 Tuesday against a 10-day average near 13. Brown University researchers estimate Americans have paid roughly $97B in extra fuel costs since the war began (~$740/household).
Trading Economics / Reuters / CNN (Brown University)2026-09-04
Sept 4, 2026: AAA's national average pump price reached ~$4.17/gal, up roughly $1 in a single month, as Brent held near $95.23 and WTI near $92-93 — about six-week highs — on the renewed US-Iran war-risk premium. AAA notes retail prices lag crude moves by weeks, so further pump increases are possible even if crude stabilizes.
AAA Gas Prices / Trading Economics2026-09-04
Sept 2, 2026: the US adopted a 'tanker-for-tanker' retaliation policy, conducting the first strikes ever aimed directly at Iranian government oil tankers (not blockade enforcement) — drones hit two anchored tankers in their engine rooms off Iran's southern coast.
Axios2026-09-02
OPEC+ implemented its ~188,000 bpd September production increase — the final scheduled tranche completing the reversal of the 2023 voluntary cuts — with delegates signaling quotas hold steady through year-end absent further shocks.
World Oil / OPEC Secretariat2026-09-01
Sept 3, 2026 (overnight): Brent held near $95/bbl and WTI near $92 as the US-Iran strike exchange around the Strait of Hormuz kept a war-risk premium in crude; no major new strike was confirmed overnight and the Strait stays partially blocked. AAA national gas held near $4.12/gal.
OilPrice.com / AAA2026-09-03
Refreshed by the scheduled research agent against live sources (AAA, EIA, Trading Economics, World Bank/IMF, Reuters/CNBC). Contextual figures here may lag the live TradingView and OilPrice.com quotes shown above. Baselines labelled 'pre-war' are fixed reference points (late Feb 2026) and do not change.
Sources