Situation report
Iran–Israel–US war · updated 2026-09-12Latest developments
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CriticalHouthis complete their grip on Bab el-Mandeb, seizing Perim Island after taking the port of MochaSep 12, 9:09 AM
A day after capturing the Red Sea port of Mocha, Houthi forces reached and seized Perim (Mayyun) Island — which splits the Bab el-Mandeb shipping lanes — after government forces withdrew, effectively completing their control of the strait's chokepoint and raising fresh threats to Red Sea shipping alongside the Hormuz crisis.
2 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternCenter2 sourcesA second global chokepoint is now contested alongside Hormuz.
NPR and CNN reported the Houthis opening a new battlefront by seizing a strategic Red Sea port and island in the Bab el-Mandeb, a vital waterway for global shipping.
Foreign — Western2 sourcesWestern and Israeli outlets stress the threat the takeover poses to Red Sea trade.
Euronews reported the Houthis seizing the Yemeni island and taking control of the Bab el-Mandeb, while the Jerusalem Post detailed their reach to the coastal city and island at the strait's mouth.
CriticalSaudi Arabia keeps its main Hormuz-bypass pipeline shut as Iraq scrambles over drones blamed on Iran-backed militiasSep 12, 9:09 AM
Saudi Arabia's ~7M bpd East-West (Petroline) pipeline — its main route bypassing the blockaded Strait of Hormuz — stayed shut after drones reportedly launched from Iraq hit pump stations. Baghdad confirmed the drones came from Iraqi soil, opened a probe, dismissed a commander and said it seized 47 drones; Kataib Hezbollah denied involvement. Trump said Iran was 'probably' responsible; Riyadh held off retaliation at Baghdad's request.
3 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternGovernmentCenter2 sourcesThe attack widens the energy war beyond Hormuz and tests Iraq’s control over armed groups.
AP reported Iraq racing to contain the fallout — confirming the drones originated on its soil, dismissing a military commander and announcing seizures of drones and projectiles — while Bloomberg detailed the shutdown of the strait-bypassing pipeline and its supply implications.
Foreign — Western2 sourcesAnalysts read the strike as Iran using Iraqi proxies to pressure Gulf states over hosting US forces.
The National reported US officials assessing the drones originated in Iraq and analysts tying the attack to Iran-aligned militias' record of hitting Saudi Arabia, while the Times of Israel described Baghdad under mounting pressure over the groups operating on its soil.
Government2 sourcesIraq denies its territory was the launch point and pledges a probe; Riyadh reserves the right to respond but holds off.
Arab News and Gulf News reported Iraq's prime minister denying the drones took off from Iraqi soil and ordering an urgent investigation, while Saudi Arabia condemned the strike and said it would refrain from retaliating for now at Baghdad's request.
CriticalUS destroys five Iranian tankers in Gulf of Oman; Iran fires 20 missiles at Jordan air base and attacks ~10 ships near HormuzSep 11, 9:17 AM
Iran's IRGC said its navy struck a US 'Saildrone-type' unmanned surface vessel in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, calling it an 'aggressive mission' it thwarted, while UKMTO reported projectiles hitting two more ships off Oman. It follows the Sept 8-9 peak of the tanker war — CENTCOM sinking five Iranian tankers, Iran's roughly 20-missile strike on a US-used base in Jordan, and a wave of attacks on about 10 vessels near Hormuz. Corridor throughput has collapsed to a handful of transits a day.
2 perspectives:CenterForeign — Global SouthCenter2 sourcesUS and wire coverage stresses that Iranian attempts on the US vessel failed and no American ship was struck.
US News/Reuters and GlobalSecurity's daily tracker reported the biggest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began, with CENTCOM saying Iranian attempts on US assets failed and emphasizing freedom of navigation as transits collapsed.
Foreign — Global South1 sourceAl Jazeera frames the strikes as Iran enforcing its Hormuz 'prohibited zone' and hitting US bases.
Al Jazeera's live coverage reported the IRGC attacking a US unmanned vessel in Hormuz and two ships hit off Oman, alongside its account of how Iran damaged US bases in Bahrain and Jordan, casting the strikes as self-defense and zone enforcement.
HighSixth straight night of Russian strikes on the Kyiv region kills at least 11 as the US-brokered pause collapsesSep 12, 9:09 AM
Overnight Sept 10-11 Russia hit the Kyiv region with ballistic, cruise and anti-radar missiles and about 218 drones and decoys, killing at least 11 — eight in Kyiv city, most in the Darnytskyi district — and wounding a dozen including children, the sixth consecutive night of strikes after the Witkoff-Kushner diplomatic pause lapsed. Ukraine struck fuel and logistics sites in Russia's Saratov in reply.
2 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternCenter1 sourceCoverage frames a sustained escalation on Ukraine’s capital after diplomacy lapsed.
ABC News, carrying AP, reported the overnight barrage of drones and missiles on the Kyiv region killing at least 11 and wounding many more, describing it as among the deadliest recent attacks on the capital as the US-brokered pause collapsed.
Foreign — Western2 sourcesUkrainian coverage counts the residential toll and Kyiv’s deep-strike reply.
The Kyiv Independent reported the residential damage and casualties in Kyiv while Ukrinform tracked heavy front-line fighting and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian fuel and logistics targets in Saratov overnight.
HighIran says it struck 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in the war's largest declared shipping wave; tanker Andros ablazeSep 11, 9:17 AM
The Panama-flagged, Greek-owned tanker Andros — carrying about 2 million barrels of Iraqi fuel oil — remained ablaze after a drone strike in Iraqi waters, with all 22 crew safe. UKMTO logged several vessels hit by disabling fire overnight across the northern Gulf and Gulf of Oman, a vessel listing off Port Rashid and a cargo ship struck southeast of al-Faw; Reuters reported one seafarer killed off Dubai. It is the largest declared shipping wave of the US-Iran war.
3 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternForeign — Global SouthCenter1 sourceWire analysts call it the biggest single wave of tit-for-tat shipping attacks since the war began.
Reuters-sourced coverage reported Iran claiming hits on 10 vessels near Hormuz, with UKMTO logging multiple merchant ships struck overnight and unable to confirm casualties, as the tanker Andros caught fire in Iraqi waters.
Foreign — Western1 sourceWestern analysis frames the wave as a deliberate Iranian escalation against global shipping after the US sank five Iranian tankers.
Foreign Policy reported Iran targeting roughly 10 ships in the Strait of Hormuz in a massive attack on global shipping, following the US sinking of five Iranian tankers and Iran's earlier missile fire at a US-used base in Jordan.
Foreign — Global South1 sourceQatari coverage tracks the day-by-day toll on shipping alongside the wider Yemen and Gulf escalation.
Al Jazeera's live coverage reported hostile projectiles around Sirik and multiple vessels hit near Hormuz, situating the shipping wave within a widening regional escalation that included the Houthi seizure of Mocha.
HighSaudi Arabia strikes back after heaviest Houthi barrage in years hits Aramco sites and King Khalid Air BaseSep 10, 9:18 AM
A Houthi missile-and-drone barrage on Sept 8 ignited fires at Saudi Aramco facilities in Abha, Najran and Jizan and at King Abdullah Economic City, and struck King Khalid Air Base near Khamis Mushait, wounding 73 and forcing temporary oil shutdowns. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree tied it to Saudi airstrikes on Yemen; Riyadh answered with a reported 121 airstrikes on Marib, Al-Bayda, Hudaydah, Taiz and Al-Jawf, shattering a roughly four-year truce as crude held above $100.
1 perspective:CenterCenter1 sourceCoverage tracks a sharp Saudi-Houthi escalation around Aramco energy sites and an air base.
Al Jazeera reported fighting escalating in Yemen as Houthi attacks triggered alerts in Saudi Arabia, with the group claiming a “broad operation” on Aramco sites in Abha, Najran and Jizan plus Khamis Mushait air base, and Saudi officials citing dozens wounded.
StandardIsrael kills Hamas Khan Younis brigade commander al-Yazouri in a Gaza strike, straining the fragile ceasefireSep 12, 9:09 AM
Israel said a Sept 10 airstrike in Khan Younis killed Muhammad Abdul Salam al-Yazouri, commander of Hamas's Khan Younis Brigade and linked to Oct 7 planning, along with two other operatives. Hamas confirmed his death on Sept 11, calling it a 'cowardly assassination' as the fragile Gaza ceasefire frayed further.
3 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternForeign — Global SouthCenter1 sourceThe killing of a senior Hamas commander tests an already fragile truce.
Deccan Herald reported Israel's strike killing Hamas commander Mohammed al-Yazouri in Khan Younis, one of the most senior Hamas figures killed in weeks.
Foreign — Western2 sourcesIsraeli sources stress the target’s Oct 7 role and the operation’s precision.
The Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post reported the IDF and Shin Bet confirming the strike killed the Khan Younis Brigade commander and two other operatives, citing his role in the Oct 7 attack.
Foreign — Global South1 sourcePro-Palestinian framing condemns the strike as an assassination undermining the truce.
Coverage relaying Hamas's statement condemned the killing of the Qassam Brigades commander as a 'cowardly assassination,' casting it as Israel breaking the spirit of the ceasefire.
StandardTrump declines direct US strikes on the Houthis despite Saudi appeals, offering intelligence support insteadSep 12, 9:09 AM
Two US officials said the administration has no plans for now to strike the Houthis after their Bab el-Mandeb advance, despite Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pressing Trump twice by phone. Washington is providing intelligence and targeting support to Riyadh rather than direct action, a posture officials said could shift if the Red Sea shipping threat escalates.
2 perspectives:CenterGovernmentCenter2 sourcesThe report defines the US escalation ceiling on the newest, Red Sea, front.
ABC News reported that the administration has no plans for now to strike the Houthis, and CNBC detailed the Houthi advance to a key Red Sea island threatening a crucial oil chokepoint.
Government1 sourceThe administration frames restraint as avoiding a new Yemen war while backing Saudi defense.
US officials, cited by ABC News, said Washington is providing intelligence and targeting support to Riyadh rather than launching its own strikes, despite the Saudi crown prince pressing Trump directly.
StandardIsrael demolishes major Hezbollah tunnel network under south Lebanon’s Ali Taher ridge, declares ‘security zone’ completeSep 10, 5:10 PM
The IDF said it blew up an underground complex on the Ali Taher ridge near Beaufort Castle on Sept 10, completing destruction of a Hezbollah tunnel network it described as spanning eight tunnels over about 5.4 km. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz said in a joint statement the military has now completed organizing the ‘security zone’ in southern Lebanon, despite a nominal ceasefire.
2 perspectives:CenterForeign — WesternCenter1 sourceCoverage notes the operation proceeds despite the nominal ceasefire and Israel’s continued presence on Lebanese soil.
The Jerusalem Post reported the IDF clearing Hezbollah tunnels on the Ali al-Taher ridge after a months-long operation, situating it within Israel’s ongoing activity in south Lebanon under a fragile truce.
Foreign — Western1 sourceIsraeli coverage presents the demolition as the culmination of a months-long campaign to clear Hezbollah infrastructure.
The Times of Israel reported the IDF demolishing the tunnel system below the Beaufort ridge and quoted Netanyahu and Katz declaring the southern-Lebanon security zone complete, framing the blast as a decisive step against Hezbollah’s underground network.
The map
Major strikes, attacks, and US basing across the region. Every marker links to its source — dashed markers are reported but not yet confirmed.
Conflict map
60 major strikes · 15 US bases · updated 2026-09-12Major sourced strike/military events only; coordinates identify the reported city or facility, not precise impact points. Re-verified ~13:09 UTC Sept 12, 2026. Added the Sept 10 Israeli strike in Khan Younis that killed Hamas's Khan Younis Brigade commander; recent maritime tanker exchanges and the Mocha/Perim ground seizures are not point-strike markers.
Marker locations are approximate — coordinates identify the city or facility reported struck, not precise impact points. Confirmed = acknowledged by the attacking or defending party or verified by major wire services; Reported = credible reporting not yet officially acknowledged. Every marker links to its source. Military base markers show pre-war US posture and known strike history, not live force positions.
Sources
The human cost
Confirmed, estimated, and rumored casualty counts per party — every figure sourced, tiers shown separately because they disagree.
Death toll
2026 Iran War · February 28, 2026 – ongoingCore figures carry forward and are re-verified each refresh; treat totals as a floor, not a current count. Re-verified ~13:09 UTC Sept 12, 2026 — no government-acknowledged (confirmed-tier) death-toll changes since the Sept 12 read. The overnight Kyiv barrage, the Israeli strike that killed Hamas's Khan Younis brigade commander al-Yazouri, and the Saudi Petroline pipeline attack caused casualties but no confirmed new party death tolls. Iran: ~3,489 confirmed (Foundation of Martyrs) / ~3,770 estimated (HRANA ~3,636 documented). US 13 confirmed / ~15 estimated (aggregators cite ~18 KIA / ~794 wounded, estimated tier). Israel 59. Lebanon's Health Ministry cumulative ~4,358 killed / 12,359 wounded since March 2. Iraq 119 confirmed / 129 estimated. Confirmed = governments' own acknowledged tolls; estimated = monitors and journalists; independent verification inside Iran remains constrained.
Key facts
Sept 6, 2026: Israeli strikes across the Nabatieh district — Nabatieh city, Arab Salim (two women killed), Kfar Rumman and Deir al-Zahrani — killed between 7 (Lebanese Health Ministry) and 9-11 (Lebanese outlets, including two infants) and wounded about 13-20; a strike destroyed part of Ghandour Hospital and damaged a Finance Ministry building. Israel said it answered two Hezbollah drones fired at its troops in occupied south Lebanon; Lebanon's confirmed cumulative floor holds at 4,347 pending a restated Health Ministry total.
L'Orient Today / NBC News / Al-Monitor2026-09-06
Iran's health minister said the Sept 1-2 US strike wave killed 18 people and wounded 108 across several provinces, including 4-5 at a wedding in Kuhestak (Sirik) on the Hormuz coast and about 7 near Ahvaz/Aghajari in Khuzestan. The figures lift Iran's confirmed war toll to roughly 3,489; US officials reported no American casualties from Iran's retaliatory salvo on Gulf bases.
RFE/RL / Antiwar.com / Xinhua2026-09-02
A US strike on a home hosting a wedding in Kuhestak (Sirik) overnight Sept 1-2 killed at least five, including a child, and wounded ~63-68, most of them women and children, per Iranian officials. Iran's retaliatory missile-and-drone salvo on US bases in Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain produced no confirmed US casualties per two US officials, contradicting IRGC claims (rumored tier).
Al Jazeera / Reuters / Al-Monitor2026-09-02
US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Aug 30, the first strike on Iranian territory in about a month; the IRGC reported killed and wounded soldiers and civilians, but the figures are unverified and no confirmed casualty tier has been updated.
CNN / Washington Post2026-08-30
Over 15% of documented Iranian fatalities in the first weeks of the 2026 war were children, per HRANA field reports.
HRANA2026-03-22
Lebanon has suffered the second-highest death toll of the war — about 2,909 confirmed killed and roughly 1.2 million displaced since March 2026, after 11 more were killed in Israeli strikes on Aug 15.
Lebanese LDRMU via Al Jazeera2026-08-15
US forces have suffered 13 confirmed combat deaths, with the official wounded-or-killed toll now at 776 after the Pentagon acknowledged 60 more injured (independent tallies exceed 900) — the first US combat fatalities in a state-on-state war since 2003.
Pentagon via The Intercept2026-08-25
The July 29 joint US–Saudi strikes on Iran-aligned militia sites in eastern Iraq killed about 20 PMF fighters and wounded 32, per Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces — the war's deadliest single day inside Iraq.
US Central Command / PMF figures2026-07-29
Casualty figures in an active conflict are contested, delayed, and often politicized. Confirmed = officially acknowledged by the party's government or armed forces. Estimated = independent monitors and journalists (HRANA, LDRMU, INSS, wire services). Rumored = unverified claims, mostly from opposition or partisan groups, shown for transparency only. All tiers routinely disagree; every figure links to its source so you can judge for yourself.
Sources
The financial cost
What the conflict is costing each party and the wider economy. All figures are sourced estimates and vary widely between analysts.
Daily war cost
Day 197 · since 2026-02-28- Munitions expended$14B
- Naval operations$8.3B
- Air operations$7.4B
- Personnel deployment$3.5B
- Logistics & sustainment$8.9B
- Munitions expended$5.5B
- Naval operations$1.5B
- Air operations$6.5B
- Personnel mobilization$2.5B
- Logistics & sustainment$2.0B
- Munitions expended$1.4B
- Naval operations$310M
- Air operations$470M
- Personnel$1.1B
- Logistics & sustainment$810M
Weapon costs
| Weapon | Party | Unit cost | Used | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGM-109 Tomahawk (Block V) | US | $2.0M | 1,000 | $2.0B |
| GBU-57 MOP (bunker-buster) | US | $3.5M | 50 | $175M |
| RIM-161 SM-3 Block IIA | US | $12M | 35 | $420M |
| THAAD interceptor | US | $13M | 198 | $2.6B |
| Iron Dome Tamir interceptor | Israel | $50K | 4,500 | $225M |
| Arrow-3 interceptor | Israel | $2.5M | 40 | $100M |
| Shahed-136 (Geran-2) drone | Iran | $20K | 1,200 | $24M |
| Corsair unmanned surface vessel (attack sea drone) | US | $3.0M | 3 | $9.0M |
Economic ripple effects
Both benchmarks logged their first weekly close above $100 since May (WTI +9.4%, Brent +8.7%) before easing Friday on news Iran would meet Gulf states in Oman over Hormuz.CNBC
IMF estimate of the drag from the oil shock and trade disruption.IMF
Gulf war-risk premiums rose from ~0.05% to ~5% of hull value, ~$2.5M extra per transit.Lloyd's / Reuters
Brown Costs of War energy tracker: extra US gasoline/diesel costs since Feb 28; diesel accounts for >$46B (~$350/household).Brown Costs of War / Axios
Moody's Analytics now estimates the war has cost US consumers and taxpayers about $132B so far (up from ~$100B on June 2), driven mainly by the Hormuz-linked energy shock; gasoline peaked near $4.56/gal.Moody's Analytics via Fortune
Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi pegs the cost at roughly $1,000 per US household — about $300 gasoline, ~$200 diesel/transport pass-through, ~$100 airfares, plus the taxpayer share.Mark Zandi / Fortune
The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, the lowest since the pandemic, citing the oil shock and trade disruption.World Bank via Fortune
Saudi state shipper Bahri confirmed on Sept 2 that two Filipino sailors were killed and 14 evacuated after its Sidr crude tanker was struck by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Aug 31; the crew contained a fire. Saudi Arabia blamed Iran, which did not publicly claim responsibility.Philstar / Asharq Al-Awsat
Goldman Sachs warned Brent could top $120 in 2027 if Gulf output stays ~4M bpd below pre-war levels, after lifting its December Brent/WTI forecasts by $5 to $85/$80; US consumers are absorbing a ~$100B fuel hit.CBS News
Key facts
Day 197 (Sept 12, 2026): no new CBO, DoD Comptroller, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. On the indirect side, crude booked its first weekly close above $100 since May (Brent settled $104.61, WTI $100.05 on Sept 11; +8.7%/+9.4% on the week) even as prices eased Friday on news Iran would meet Gulf states in Oman over Hormuz; Brown University's energy tracker put the extra US fuel bill near ~$102B (~$780/household).
CNBC / Axios / Brown Costs of War2026-09-12
Day 196 (Sept 11, 2026; evening): no new CBO, DoD Comptroller, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. Indirect costs kept mounting as drones reportedly from Iraq forced Saudi Arabia to shut its ~7M bpd Hormuz-bypassing East-West (Petroline) pipeline and crude booked a ~9% weekly gain (first weekly close above $100 since May) — energy-shock costs distinct from the direct-military topline.
CNBC / Bloomberg / CNN2026-09-11
Day 196 (Sept 11, 2026): no new CBO, DoD Comptroller, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. The indirect bill kept climbing: with Brent above $100 a second day and Hormuz shut, Middle East-to-China supertanker earnings hit a record ~$759,969/day — war-risk costs distinct from the direct-military topline.
CNBC / The Daily Caller2026-09-11
Day 196 (Sep 10-11, 2026): the US-Iran tanker war hit peak intensity. After CENTCOM destroyed five Iranian tankers on Sep 8 and Iran struck a US-used base in Jordan on Sep 9, Iran said it hit 10 vessels near Hormuz on Sep 10 — the largest declared shipping wave of the war — and Houthis seized Yemen's port of Mocha. US crude held above $100 for a second day (WTI ~$102.5, Brent ~$107.6).
CNBC / Reuters / Al Jazeera2026-09-11
Brown University's Costs of War energy tracker put the extra US fuel bill from the Iran war near ~$102B (~$770 per household) by early September — gasoline ~$55B and diesel ~$46B — a household cost distinct from the direct-military topline, with the AAA gas average around $4.28/gal and diesel at a record ~$5.98/gal.
CNN / Axios / Brown Costs of War2026-09-10
By Sept 10, 2026 (day 195), the US-Iran tanker war reached its most intense level: after CENTCOM destroyed five Iranian tankers on Sept 8 and Iran struck a US-used base in Jordan and ~10 ships near Hormuz on Sept 9, US crude settled above $100/barrel for the first time since 2024, underscoring the conflict’s widening economic cost beyond direct military spending.
NPR / Al Jazeera2026-09-10
Harvard economist Linda Bilmes projects the Iran war could ultimately cost the US at least $1 trillion once veterans’ medical care, disability benefits and long-term aftereffects are counted — far above the direct-military topline.
Forbes (William Hartung)2026-09-05
Extra fuel costs to US consumers since the start of the Iran war have topped $40B (more than $300 per household) as an energy-price ripple effect, separate from the direct-military spending tracked here.
Day 194 (Sept 9, 2026): no new CBO, DoD Comptroller, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. On the indirect side, Brown University’s Iran War energy-cost tracking holds above ~$100B in extra US gasoline/diesel costs since late February — roughly $763 per household — with the national gas average a record ~$4.15/gal and diesel ~$5.90/gal (up ~60% year on year).
CNN / Brown University Costs of War2026-09-09
Day 193 (Sept 8, 2026): no new CBO, DoD, CSIS, SIPRI or Penn Wharton combined direct-military topline this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. On the indirect side, CNN reported Brown University's Iran War energy-cost tracker crossing ~$100B in extra US gasoline/diesel costs since Feb 28 — about $763 per household — with the national gas average at a Labor Day record ~$4.15/gal.
CNN / Brown University Costs of War2026-09-08
Sept 8, 2026: Taxpayers for Common Sense's direct-and-indirect accounting argues the war's indirect bill may outpace direct costs over time: on a ~$72B first-60-day base it estimates roughly $2.4B in added public-debt interest over the next year (~$26.9B over a decade), on top of long-term veterans' disability and medical care — costs distinct from the direct-military topline.
Taxpayers for Common Sense2026-09-08
Day 193 (Sept 8, 2026): no new Pentagon, CBO, CSIS or SIPRI combined cost topline was issued this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. The war remains in an open 'tanker war' phase after CENTCOM's Sept 5 strikes on three Iranian tankers and a Sept 8 Houthi barrage on Saudi Aramco energy sites. Official anchors carry forward below the inclusive modeled figure: Hegseth's $37.5B US-direct (Jul 21 testimony), CSIS ~$40B DoD-only, AEI ~$42B, Penn Wharton ~$27-28B.
CNBC / Al Jazeera2026-09-08
Day 192 (Sept 7, 2026; evening): no new Pentagon, CBO, CSIS or SIPRI combined cost topline was issued this cycle; the modeled direct-military total holds at ~$75.4B (US $47.7B + Israel $23.3B + Iran $4.4B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. In a Sept 5 Forbes analysis, William Hartung (Quincy Institute) argued the war’s true bill will run for decades beyond the direct-military topline, citing Harvard economist Linda Bilmes’s projection that veterans’ care, disability, reconstruction and interest could push the long-run cost past $1 trillion. Official anchors carry forward below the inclusive modeled figure: Hegseth’s $37.5B US-direct (Jul 21 testimony), CSIS ~$40B DoD-only, Penn Wharton ~$27-28B, and AEI ~$42B.
Forbes (William Hartung) / Harvard Kennedy School (Linda Bilmes)2026-09-07
Sept 5-6, 2026: the US-Iran 'tanker war' escalated — CENTCOM struck three Iranian oil tankers Sept 5 in retaliation for IRGC ballistic-missile attempts on a US carrier and destroyer (both evaded), and Iran said it will declare a restricted maritime zone outside the Strait of Hormuz. No new combined cost topline accompanied the exchange; modeled accrual continues near $1.025B/day. Brent held ~$96/bbl and US gasoline ~$4.15/gal.
Al Jazeera / NBC News2026-09-06
Day 191 (Sept 6, 2026; evening): no new Pentagon, CBO or CSIS combined topline was issued this cycle. The day count is corrected to 191 (conflict start Feb 28 = Day 1; GlobalSecurity's tracker put Day 190 on Sept 5). The modeled direct-military total holds at ~$74.0B (US $47.0B + Israel $22.7B + Iran $4.3B), accruing ~$1.025B/day. Official anchors carry forward below the inclusive modeled figure: Hegseth's $37.5B US-direct (Jul 21 testimony), CSIS ~$40B DoD-only, and an AEI-cited ~$42B Pentagon estimate.
GlobalSecurity / CSIS / U.S. Senate Armed Services testimony2026-09-06
Sept 4, 2026 refresh: the modeled combined direct-military estimate holds near $72.6B (US $46.3B + Israel $22.0B + Iran $4.3B), accruing about $1.025B/day, after a second US strike round in three days on Iran’s southern coast and Iranian retaliation on bases in Kuwait and the UAE (no US casualties reported). No new Pentagon/CBO/CSIS combined topline accompanied the escalation; official anchors — Hegseth’s July 21 sworn $37.5B US-direct figure, CSIS’s ~$34-42B DoD-only band and AEI’s ~$42B Pentagon estimate — carry forward and remain below the modeled inclusive figure, which the disclaimer labels provisional.
CSIS / NBC News / AEI (via NOTUS)2026-09-04
Day count corrected to Day 189 on Sept 4, 2026, aligning with GlobalSecurity's authoritative daily tracker (Day 187 on Sept 2, counting from the Feb 28 start) after prior refreshes drifted about five days ahead. No reputable institution publishes a current combined running total: the best-sourced anchors remain CSIS's ~$40B ($34-42B) estimate for the Feb-June 'Operation Epic Fury' phase (munitions ~$26.1B, ~2/3 of the total), Hegseth's July 21 sworn $37.5B US-direct figure and AEI's ~$42B Pentagon estimate. The site's ~$72.6B combined figure is a modeled, inclusive running estimate (US $46.3B + Israel $22.0B + Iran $4.3B) that sits above those official anchors and is labeled provisional in the disclaimer.
GlobalSecurity / CSIS (Cancian, 'What Did Epic Fury Cost?')2026-09-04
Day 189 (Sept 4, 2026): the US-Iran strike exchange continued after the largest action in over a month - US strikes on ~100 IRGC-linked targets around Iran's southern Hormuz coast (including a contested strike near Sirik that Iran says killed civilians at a wedding, and strikes near Ahvaz) and Iranian missile/drone salvos on US-linked bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq; no US casualties reported. No new Pentagon/CBO/CSIS cost topline accompanied the escalation - Hegseth's July 21 sworn $37.5B US-direct figure, CSIS's ~$40B DoD-only band and AEI's ~$42B Pentagon estimate carry forward, with modeled combined accrual continuing near $1.025B/day.
NBC News / Al Jazeera / CBS News2026-09-04
Day 193 (Sept 3, 2026): the American Enterprise Institute now estimates Operation Epic Fury has cost the Pentagon more than $42B — led by ~$15B for missile interceptors and ~$10B for the targeting campaign — the highest analytical topline yet and above Defense Secretary Hegseth's July 21 sworn $37.5B US-direct figure. The Pentagon separately asked Congress to reshuffle $4.3B in appropriated 2026 funds (mostly $3.76B for personnel) from shipbuilding, aircraft procurement and R&D.
Sept 2-3, 2026: Bahri, Saudi Arabia's state shipping company, confirmed two Filipino sailors were killed and 14 safely evacuated after its Sidr crude tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Aug 31 amid renewed US-Iran strikes — the first confirmed civilian shipping death of the Hormuz phase. Saudi Arabia blamed Iran, which did not publicly claim responsibility.
Philstar / Asharq Al-Awsat2026-09-03
Day 192 (Sept 3, 2026): the tracker's running estimate of cumulative direct-military spending on the US-Iran war stands near $71.6B combined (US ~$45.8B, Israel ~$21.5B, Iran ~$4.27B), accruing about $1.025B/day. This inclusive running figure sits above the $37.5B official US direct cost Defense Secretary Hegseth cited to the Senate on July 21, which excluded much interception, naval and sustainment spending.
CSIS / Stars and Stripes (Hegseth Senate testimony)2026-09-03
Day 191 (Sep 2, 2026): the strike exchange intensified. Overnight/Sep 2 US strikes hit Iran’s southern Hormuz coast — Sirik (a strike on a wedding in Kuhestak killed at least 5), Konarak, Chabahar, Bandar Abbas and Qeshm — and, for the first time, Iranian government tankers under a new "tanker-for-tanker" policy; Iran’s "decisive operation" fired missiles and drones at US-linked bases in Jordan (10 of 13 missiles intercepted), Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain with no US casualties reported. US/allied air defense expended an estimated 96–128 PAC-3 MSE interceptors (~$380M–$640M). No new Pentagon/CBO/CSIS topline accompanied the strikes; modeled combined accrual continues near $1.025B/day for a running direct-military total ~$70.5B.
NPR / Al Jazeera / Military Times2026-09-02
Day 190 (Sep 2, 2026): the strike pause stays broken. After the overnight US wave on Iran's southern Hormuz coast — including a strike on a wedding in Kuhestak (Sirik) — Iran's "decisive operation" fired missiles and drones at US bases in Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain; US officials reported no American casualties. No new Pentagon/CBO/CSIS cost topline accompanied the strikes: Hegseth's July 21 sworn $37.5B US-direct figure and CSIS's ~$40B ($34-42B) DoD-only band carry forward, with modeled combined accrual continuing near $1.025B/day for a running direct-military total ~$69.5B.
CNBC / Al-Monitor / CSIS2026-09-02
Day 197 (Sep 12, 2026): modeled combined direct-military accrual holds near $75.4B — US ~$47.7B, Israel ~$23.3B, Iran ~$4.4B — at ~$1.025B/day, with no new Pentagon/CBO/CSIS topline in the window. The war's energy ripple deepened as drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and crude closed the week above $100; the Quincy Institute/ITEP fuel-cost meter cites roughly $675 in added annual cost per US household.
Provisional baseline restored from the prior Follow-the-Cost tracker and being re-verified by the scheduled refresh. Figures are direct military expenditure estimates compiled from CBO, DoD, CSIS, SIPRI and the Brown University Costs of War project; ranges vary widely and are not official totals.
Sources
The damage
Documented damage to military, nuclear, energy, and civilian sites per country — counts are a floor, since independent access is restricted in much of the region.
Damage tracker
484 documented sites · 18 countriesBattle-damage counts re-verified ~13:09 UTC Sept 12, 2026 — no new discrete-site BDA (CENTCOM/IDF/satellite/OCHA) surfaced this cycle, so per-country counts hold as documented floors. The Sept 11 Saudi Petroline pump-station attack (already logged) caused fires and material damage; the overnight Kyiv barrage and the Khan Younis strike are single-event casualties, not new fixed-site assessments. Counts are documented floors, not precise totals.
- Military57
- Nuclear12
- Energy12
- Infrastructure23
- Civilian26
- Other23
- Military26
- Infrastructure11
- Civilian42
- Other37
- Military7
- Nuclear1
- Energy3
- Infrastructure7
- Civilian39
- Other20
- Military7
- Energy6
- Infrastructure9
- Civilian2
- Other2
- Military1
- Energy5
- Infrastructure10
- Civilian2
- Other2
- Military9
- Infrastructure4
- Other2
- Military2
- Infrastructure3
- Civilian5
- Military3
- Energy2
- Infrastructure1
- Civilian2
- Other2
- Military2
- Energy4
- Other2
- Military4
- Infrastructure6
- Civilian1
- Other4
- Energy1
Damietta LNG terminal strike, July 29 — first attack on Egyptian soil; attribution unclaimed.
Notable sites
- US aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti (Azraq) Air BaseAzraq, JordanmoderateMilitary
Iran's Sept 9 ballistic-missile strike on the US-used Muwaffaq Salti (Azraq) air base damaged US aircraft: one A-10 lost part of a wing and roughly eight F-15Es sustained lighter damage; 18 of 20 missiles were intercepted with no casualties.
Air & Space Forces Magazine / Al Jazeera2026-09-09
- Two Iranian government tankers (engine rooms)Off southern Iran coast, IransevereEnergy
First US 'tanker-for-tanker' strike: US drones fired missiles into the engine rooms of two anchored Iranian government tankers north of the naval blockade line, in retaliation for Iranian attacks on Hormuz shipping.
Axios2026-09-02
- Kuhestak (Sirik) residential home & shoreline telecom towerKuhestak, Sirik County, IrandestroyedCivilian
A US strike destroyed a residential home hosting a wedding party in Kuhestak and a telecom tower on the shoreline; Iran's Red Crescent reported 4-5 killed, including a 4-year-old, and 67-68 wounded. CENTCOM said it does not target civilians.
Casualties: 4-5 killed (incl. a 4-year-old), 67-68 wounded (Iran Red Crescent)
Al Jazeera2026-09-02
- Larak Island rocket launchersLarak Island, IrandestroyedMilitary
US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz after the IRGC was observed preparing to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the waterway — the first US strike on Iranian territory in about a month. Iran vowed to retaliate.
Casualties: Iran (IRGC) reported killed and wounded; numbers unverified
CNN / Washington Post2026-08-30
- Sanaa International Airport — Yemenia Airbus aircraft destroyedYemensevereInfrastructure
Israeli airstrike on Sanaa International Airport destroyed 3 Yemenia Airbus aircraft on the ground and killed 3 people. Defense Minister Katz claimed Israel 'destroyed the Houthis' remaining plane.' Strike came in retaliation for Houthi missile attacks on Israel.
Casualties: 3 killed
Times of Israel2026-05-06
- Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) — drone strike and fireUAEsevereInfrastructure
Iranian drone penetrated UAE air defenses and struck the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ/VTTI petroleum complex), causing a major fire. Smoke plume visible for kilometers. 3 Indian nationals moderately injured. First attack on UAE since April 8 ceasefire. UAE intercepted 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 3 other drones.
Casualties: 0 killed, 3 injured (Indian nationals)
Bloomberg2026-05-04
Show 14 more sites
- Kharg Island Military Targets (50+ sites)IransevereMilitary
US struck 50+ military targets on Kharg Island — bunkers, storage facilities, runways, air defense systems. Oil infrastructure not targeted per US officials.
NBC News2026-04-07
- Khorramshahr Shipyards (IRGC Navy)IrandestroyedMilitary
Two shipbuilding companies destroyed. 80% of IRGC Navy vessels built here.
Alma Center2026-04-07
- Haifa Residential Building — Iranian Missile Direct HitIsraelsevereCivilian
7-story residential building partially collapsed after direct hit by Iranian ballistic missile. 2 confirmed dead, 2 missing under rubble, 24 wounded.
Jerusalem Post2026-04-06
- Ramat Gan / Bnei Brak — Cluster Bomblet Impact ZoneIsraelsevereCivilian
28+ cluster bomblet impact sites across densely populated Tel Aviv suburbs. Heavy damage to buildings in Ramat Gan, Bnei Brak, Givatayim. High-voltage line damaged in Rosh Ha'ayin causing power outage. 2 killed, 1 moderately wounded.
Haaretz2026-04-06
- Commercial Vessels — Strait of Hormuz (Day 12)Strait of Hormuz, International WaterssevereInfrastructure
3 more commercial ships attacked by IRGC Navy on Day 12, bringing total to 14 vessels damaged or sunk since war began. 330+ vessels at anchor. Shipping traffic down 95%. Insurance withdrawn by all major providers.
Casualties: Crews evacuated, injuries reported
Lloyd's List / Reuters2026-03-11
- Al-Kharj Residential AreaAl-Kharj, Saudi ArabiasevereCivilian
Projectile struck residential facility south of Riyadh. First civilian deaths in Saudi Arabia during the conflict.
Casualties: 2 killed, 12 injured
CNN2026-03-07
- Bushehr Nuclear Power PlantBushehr, IransevereNuclear
Tomahawk missiles struck reactor cooling systems and auxiliary buildings. IAEA dispatched emergency teams for radiological contamination assessment.
Casualties: 15 plant workers killed, radiation concerns
CENTCOM Press Release2026-03-01
- IRGC Aerospace Force HQTehran, IrandestroyedMilitary
Underground command bunkers destroyed by GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators delivered by B-2 Spirit bombers. At least 40 senior IRGC officers killed including two brigadier generals.
Casualties: 40+ IRGC officials killed
CENTCOM Press Release2026-02-28
- Damietta LNG terminal — Energos Winter FSRU & GasLog Salem tankerDamietta, EgyptsevereEnergy
A drone struck the US-owned floating storage unit Energos Winter at Egypt's Damietta gas terminal, igniting a fire that spread to the Greek-owned LNG tanker GasLog Salem — the first apparent attack on Egyptian soil in the war. Attribution remains unclaimed; Egypt is analyzing recovered drone fragments.
gCaptain / The Defense Post2026-07-29
- Chinese company compound, northern KuwaitNorthern Kuwait, KuwaitsevereCivilian
An Iranian strike on a Chinese company's building in northern Kuwait killed one worker and caused severe material damage amid Iran's wider July 30-31 retaliation against US assets in the Gulf.
Casualties: 1 killed
CNBC2026-07-30
- Ansar residential compound (IDF-designated Radwan Force HQ)Ansar, LebanondestroyedMilitary
An Israeli airstrike destroyed a house/compound near Ansar that the IDF called a central Radwan Force headquarters, killing seven people including three children; Israel said it killed Radwan commander Ali Samir al-Haj Hassan and later acknowledged civilian casualties.
The Times of Israel2026-08-15
- Ghandour Hospital (partial) & Finance Ministry building, NabatiehNabatieh, LebanonsevereInfrastructure
An Israeli air wave across the Nabatieh district on Sept 6 destroyed part of Ghandour Hospital and damaged a Finance Ministry building, amid strikes that killed 7-11 people (including two infants) and wounded 13-20. Israel said it answered two Hezbollah drones launched at its troops.
Casualties: 7-11 killed, 13-20 wounded (district-wide)
L'Orient Today / NBC News2026-09-06
- Hezbollah tunnel network, Ali al-Taher ridgeAli al-Taher Heights (near Nabatieh), LebanondestroyedMilitary
The IDF demolished a Hezbollah tunnel network beneath the Ali al-Taher ridge in a controlled detonation large enough to register as a seismic event, following a broad daytime wave of airstrikes and shelling across south Lebanon; Israel declared its south-Lebanon security zone complete.
Times of Israel / Jerusalem Post2026-09-10
- East-West (Petroline) pipeline pump station(s)Riyadh & Madinah regions, Saudi ArabiasevereEnergy
Drones reportedly launched from Iraq struck pump stations feeding Saudi Arabia's ~7M bpd strait-bypassing East-West (Petroline) crude line to Yanbu; satellite imagery showed extensive fire damage at a pumping station and Riyadh shut the line as a precaution. Full damage to the pipeline body itself was not confirmed.
Bloomberg / The National / CNN2026-09-11
Key facts
Sept 6, 2026: an Israeli air wave across Lebanon's Nabatieh district destroyed part of Ghandour Hospital and damaged a Finance Ministry building — the first documented strikes on fixed medical and government facilities in the district in this phase — while killing 7-11 people and wounding 13-20 across Nabatieh city, Arab Salim and Kfar Rumman.
L'Orient Today / NBC News2026-09-06
Sept 2-3, 2026: CENTCOM said a second US strike round in three days hit roughly 100 IRGC-linked sites — air-defense, radar, anti-ship, drone and mine-laying assets — along Iran’s southern Hormuz coast, but the broad claim is not independently verified; Iranian state TV documented civilian-site damage including a fishmeal factory on Qeshm and a maritime tower and wedding home in Sirik. Documented-site counts are held pending discrete battle-damage assessment.
NPR / Fox News2026-09-03
The July 13 Corsair sea-drone strike on Bandar Abbas naval base was the first combat use of armed unmanned surface vessels, damaging Iran's submarine and ship-maintenance facility.
Bloomberg2026-07-13
Renewed US 'heavy wave' strikes on July 30–31 hit dozens of IRGC targets, with explosions reported at Bandar Abbas and near Kish and Qeshm islands, while Iran's retaliation reached Kuwait's Ahmad Al-Jaber airbase.
Al Jazeera2026-07-31
Battle-damage assessment in an active war is contested and slow. Confirmed = acknowledged by the striking or struck party, or verified via satellite imagery and major wire services; Reported = credible but unacknowledged; Rumored = unverified claims shown for transparency only. Site counts reflect documented locations, which undercount actual damage — especially inside Iran and Lebanon where independent access is restricted. Every notable site links to its source.
Sources